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Geopolitics·Oil

Houthis successfully target shipping on...?

icon for Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
Geopolitics·Oil

Houthis successfully target shipping on...?

Aug 31

Aug 31

NEW

$27,650 Vol.

Jul 24, 2026
Polymarket

$27,650 Vol.

Polymarket

July 24

$549 Vol.

11%

July 25

$456 Vol.

13%

July 26

$1,577 Vol.

24%

July 27

$770 Vol.

19%

July 28

$709 Vol.

22%

July 29

$308 Vol.

10%

July 30

$417 Vol.

16%

July 31

$418 Vol.

11%

August 1

$1,566 Vol.

15%

August 2

$310 Vol.

13%

August 3

$1,509 Vol.

20%

August 4

$284 Vol.

15%

August 5

$258 Vol.

22%

August 6

$702 Vol.

18%

August 7

$421 Vol.

17%

August 8

$506 Vol.

11%

August 9

$421 Vol.

9%

August 10

$278 Vol.

9%

August 11

$1,028 Vol.

8%

August 12

$280 Vol.

13%

August 13

$220 Vol.

12%

August 14

$179 Vol.

13%

August 15

$1,254 Vol.

17%

August 16

$1,165 Vol.

14%

August 17

$1,230 Vol.

17%

August 18

$351 Vol.

18%

August 19

$942 Vol.

15%

August 20

$1,179 Vol.

11%

August 21

$792 Vol.

37%

August 22

$8 Vol.

41%

August 23

$65 Vol.

22%

August 24

$214 Vol.

25%

August 25

$1,533 Vol.

16%

August 26

$182 Vol.

38%

August 27

$1,101 Vol.

12%

August 28

$166 Vol.

12%

August 29

$909 Vol.

13%

August 30

$1,085 Vol.

13%

August 31

$2,309 Vol.

15%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Houthis’ July 20, 2026 announcement of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-bound vessels, followed by claims of missile and drone strikes on two Saudi oil tankers transiting the Red Sea on July 22, has revived maritime-risk premiums in the Bab el-Mandeb corridor. Traders are pricing elevated insurance surcharges, potential rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and knock-on effects to Saudi crude export logistics and global freight rates. The absence of confirmed successful attacks since mid-2025 had previously allowed shipping volumes and tanker charter rates to normalize, but the latest threats and diversions have already lifted implied volatility in energy and dry-bulk freight markets. Key near-term catalysts include any verified damage reports, Saudi or coalition responses, and upcoming UN Security Council discussions on renewing Red Sea reporting mandates, all of which could shift trader consensus on the probability and duration of renewed disruptions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.

Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.

Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.

Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$27,650
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Houthis’ July 20, 2026 announcement of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-bound vessels, followed by claims of missile and drone strikes on two Saudi oil tankers transiting the Red Sea on July 22, has revived maritime-risk premiums in the Bab el-Mandeb corridor. Traders are pricing elevated insurance surcharges, potential rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and knock-on effects to Saudi crude export logistics and global freight rates. The absence of confirmed successful attacks since mid-2025 had previously allowed shipping volumes and tanker charter rates to normalize, but the latest threats and diversions have already lifted implied volatility in energy and dry-bulk freight markets. Key near-term catalysts include any verified damage reports, Saudi or coalition responses, and upcoming UN Security Council discussions on renewing Red Sea reporting mandates, all of which could shift trader consensus on the probability and duration of renewed disruptions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.

Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.

Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.

Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$27,650
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Houthis successfully target shipping on...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 39 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "August 22" at 41%, followed by "August 26" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Houthis successfully target shipping on...?" has generated $27.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Houthis successfully target shipping on...?," browse the 39 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Houthis successfully target shipping on...?" is "August 22" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "August 26" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Houthis successfully target shipping on...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.