Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, including March 2026 strikes on Kharg Island's military sites and repeated threats to seize the facility handling roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports, have elevated energy market volatility without altering territorial control. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil transits, have driven sharp swings in benchmark crude prices amid blockades and attacks on shipping. Diplomatic efforts, including the June memorandum of understanding and recent Iran-Oman proposals for joint Hormuz management, have tempered escalation risks, reinforcing trader views that full occupation remains unlikely amid logistical and economic hurdles. Key near-term catalysts include further FOMC-influenced risk sentiment and any resumption of naval operations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
3%
September 30
12%
$2,110 Vol.
August 31
$2,090 Vol.
3%
September 30
$20 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, including March 2026 strikes on Kharg Island's military sites and repeated threats to seize the facility handling roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports, have elevated energy market volatility without altering territorial control. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil transits, have driven sharp swings in benchmark crude prices amid blockades and attacks on shipping. Diplomatic efforts, including the June memorandum of understanding and recent Iran-Oman proposals for joint Hormuz management, have tempered escalation risks, reinforcing trader views that full occupation remains unlikely amid logistical and economic hurdles. Key near-term catalysts include further FOMC-influenced risk sentiment and any resumption of naval operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$2,110End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, including March 2026 strikes on Kharg Island's military sites and repeated threats to seize the facility handling roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports, have elevated energy market volatility without altering territorial control. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil transits, have driven sharp swings in benchmark crude prices amid blockades and attacks on shipping. Diplomatic efforts, including the June memorandum of understanding and recent Iran-Oman proposals for joint Hormuz management, have tempered escalation risks, reinforcing trader views that full occupation remains unlikely amid logistical and economic hurdles. Key near-term catalysts include further FOMC-influenced risk sentiment and any resumption of naval operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,110End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, including March 2026 strikes on Kharg Island's military sites and repeated threats to seize the facility handling roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports, have elevated energy market volatility without altering territorial control. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil transits, have driven sharp swings in benchmark crude prices amid blockades and attacks on shipping. Diplomatic efforts, including the June memorandum of understanding and recent Iran-Oman proposals for joint Hormuz management, have tempered escalation risks, reinforcing trader views that full occupation remains unlikely amid logistical and economic hurdles. Key near-term catalysts include further FOMC-influenced risk sentiment and any resumption of naval operations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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