US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled following the collapse of a June 2026 memorandum of understanding that set a 60-day window for a permanent peace framework after months of conflict. Technical working groups on nuclear inspections, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and Lebanon deconfliction made limited initial progress in Switzerland under Pakistani and Qatari mediation but produced no lasting commitments, with both sides accusing the other of violations by August. As of mid-September, limited strikes have resumed amid ongoing US sanctions pressure and Iranian economic strain, while US officials have kept military options open. Mediators including Oman continue lower-level regional discussions, though high-level direct or indirect talks have not resumed. Any new round by December 31 would hinge on verifiable steps addressing core disputes and shifts in military or economic conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$869,978 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Jared Kushner
38%
Steve Witkoff
38%
Abbas Araghchi
34%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
22%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
21%
Masoud Pezeshkian
19%
J.D. Vance
19%
Nick Stewart
18%
Kazem Gharibabadi
15%
Ishaq Dar
15%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
14%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
12%
Rafael Grossi
11%
Mohammed bin Salman
11%
Marco Rubio
10%
Donald Trump
7%
Pete Hegseth
7%
Ahmad Vahidi
6%
Esmail Qaani
6%
Mojtaba Khamenei
2%
$869,978 Vol.
Jared Kushner
$198,321 Vol.
38%
Steve Witkoff
$54,197 Vol.
38%
Abbas Araghchi
$36,738 Vol.
34%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
$52,267 Vol.
22%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$113,882 Vol.
21%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$49,338 Vol.
19%
J.D. Vance
$50,893 Vol.
19%
Nick Stewart
$12,986 Vol.
18%
Kazem Gharibabadi
$20,087 Vol.
15%
Ishaq Dar
$24,606 Vol.
15%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$20,332 Vol.
14%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$57,060 Vol.
12%
Rafael Grossi
$36,946 Vol.
11%
Mohammed bin Salman
$6,664 Vol.
11%
Marco Rubio
$27,672 Vol.
10%
Donald Trump
$28,218 Vol.
7%
Pete Hegseth
$22,446 Vol.
7%
Ahmad Vahidi
$20,460 Vol.
6%
Esmail Qaani
$12,429 Vol.
6%
Mojtaba Khamenei
$24,435 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled following the collapse of a June 2026 memorandum of understanding that set a 60-day window for a permanent peace framework after months of conflict. Technical working groups on nuclear inspections, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and Lebanon deconfliction made limited initial progress in Switzerland under Pakistani and Qatari mediation but produced no lasting commitments, with both sides accusing the other of violations by August. As of mid-September, limited strikes have resumed amid ongoing US sanctions pressure and Iranian economic strain, while US officials have kept military options open. Mediators including Oman continue lower-level regional discussions, though high-level direct or indirect talks have not resumed. Any new round by December 31 would hinge on verifiable steps addressing core disputes and shifts in military or economic conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Volume
$869,978End Date
Jun 23, 2027Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled following the collapse of a June 2026 memorandum of understanding that set a 60-day window for a permanent peace framework after months of conflict. Technical working groups on nuclear inspections, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and Lebanon deconfliction made limited initial progress in Switzerland under Pakistani and Qatari mediation but produced no lasting commitments, with both sides accusing the other of violations by August. As of mid-September, limited strikes have resumed amid ongoing US sanctions pressure and Iranian economic strain, while US officials have kept military options open. Mediators including Oman continue lower-level regional discussions, though high-level direct or indirect talks have not resumed. Any new round by December 31 would hinge on verifiable steps addressing core disputes and shifts in military or economic conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$869,978End Date
Jun 23, 2027Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled following the collapse of a June 2026 memorandum of understanding that set a 60-day window for a permanent peace framework after months of conflict. Technical working groups on nuclear inspections, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and Lebanon deconfliction made limited initial progress in Switzerland under Pakistani and Qatari mediation but produced no lasting commitments, with both sides accusing the other of violations by August. As of mid-September, limited strikes have resumed amid ongoing US sanctions pressure and Iranian economic strain, while US officials have kept military options open. Mediators including Oman continue lower-level regional discussions, though high-level direct or indirect talks have not resumed. Any new round by December 31 would hinge on verifiable steps addressing core disputes and shifts in military or economic conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions