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World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

icon for Iran leader end of 2026?
World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 82.2%

No Head of State 4.4%

Reza Pahlavi 3.4%

Alireza Arafi 2.5%

Polymarket

$38,630,270 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 82.2%

No Head of State 4.4%

Reza Pahlavi 3.4%

Alireza Arafi 2.5%

Polymarket

$38,630,270 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$6,036,050 Vol.

82%

No Head of State

$1,148,676 Vol.

4%

Reza Pahlavi

$672,396 Vol.

3%

Alireza Arafi

$2,311,688 Vol.

2%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$1,120,634 Vol.

2%

Hassan Rouhani

$944,728 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$776,835 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,425,383 Vol.

1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$918,080 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$1,020,011 Vol.

1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$437,515 Vol.

<1%

Abbas Araghchi

$833,512 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$535,411 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,143,945 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$804,789 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$397,180 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,694,410 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$145,355 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$211,219 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$199,186 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$836,176 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$433,339 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,346,847 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$239,202 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$384,741 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,191,853 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$281,750 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$254,575 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$306,671 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$341,251 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds the dominant position in trader consensus for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 due to his unanimous selection as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following the assassination of his father Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli strikes. This rapid succession emphasized institutional continuity through hardline clerical networks and IRGC ties, despite Mojtaba's limited public clerical credentials and the regime's historical resistance to hereditary rule. An interim council under Article 111 provided brief stability before the decisive vote consolidated power. Persistent health rumors, including reports of injuries sustained in the strikes and limited public appearances, introduce uncertainty but have not altered his formal role. Alternatives such as Alireza Arafi, Reza Pahlavi, or Hassan Khomeini remain low-probability options without recent institutional momentum or scheduled events that could shift the outcome before year-end.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$38,630,270
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds the dominant position in trader consensus for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 due to his unanimous selection as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following the assassination of his father Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli strikes. This rapid succession emphasized institutional continuity through hardline clerical networks and IRGC ties, despite Mojtaba's limited public clerical credentials and the regime's historical resistance to hereditary rule. An interim council under Article 111 provided brief stability before the decisive vote consolidated power. Persistent health rumors, including reports of injuries sustained in the strikes and limited public appearances, introduce uncertainty but have not altered his formal role. Alternatives such as Alireza Arafi, Reza Pahlavi, or Hassan Khomeini remain low-probability options without recent institutional momentum or scheduled events that could shift the outcome before year-end.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$38,630,270
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran leader end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 32 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 82%, followed by "No Head of State" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran leader end of 2026?" has generated $38.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran leader end of 2026?," browse the 32 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iran leader end of 2026?" is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "No Head of State" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iran leader end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.