Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming lead in the market because the Assembly of Experts appointed him Supreme Leader in March 2026 shortly after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28. Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have repeatedly affirmed Mojtaba’s health and active direction of affairs through written decrees and private meetings, while recent statements from family members and state-linked sources describe him as recovered and governing. The ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel, combined with hardliner and IRGC backing, has reinforced continuity in the short term. Other listed figures remain marginal because no formal transition process or competing consensus has emerged within the Assembly of Experts or key institutions ahead of year-end. Trader pricing reflects the absence of verified developments that would alter Mojtaba’s position before the resolution window closes.