Israeli strikes in 2026 have centered on Iran and Lebanon amid a fragile June ceasefire framework and persistent Hezbollah activity along the border. The most recent development, Israeli airstrikes on September 26-27 targeting sites in southern Lebanon in response to a reported Hezbollah drone, underscores continued enforcement operations despite the US-brokered deal. Earlier 2026 escalation included joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in February-March that killed senior Iranian leadership and triggered retaliatory exchanges, followed by limited June strikes on Iranian infrastructure. Traders price a 76.8% chance of exactly four countries struck overall, reflecting expectations that operations will remain concentrated on established fronts without rapid expansion to additional sovereign states, while lower probabilities for five or six account for risks of spillover involving proxies or new theaters before year-end.