Trader consensus prices 5 countries at 35% and 4 at 28%, reflecting confirmed Israeli airstrikes this year in Iran—triggered by the February 28 US-Israel campaign—Yemen amid Houthi attacks, Syria through routine operations, and Lebanon via intensified operations, including a massive April 8 barrage and fresh southern strikes as recently as May 8. The tight race persists due to fragile ceasefires holding since the Iran war's early phases, with no verified strikes on additional nations like Iraq despite reports of covert Israeli presence there raising tensions. Escalation from Hezbollah truce violations, Houthi barrages, or militia threats in Iraq could push toward 5-6, while de-escalation diplomacy might cap at 4 before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsraeli forces bomb a Tunisian maritime checkpoint in international waters, but the strike is deemed outside any sovereign land, leading traders to cut odds sharply
4 surges to 43%17%
Israeli forces bomb a Tunisian maritime checkpoint in international waters, but the strike is deemed outside any sovereign land, leading traders to cut odds sharply
Israeli drones hit a Jordanian weapons depot near the Iraq border, the first confirmed Israeli strike on Jordanian soil, raising concerns that the count of distinct countries
6 surges to 21%15%
Israeli drones hit a Jordanian weapons depot near the Iraq border, the first confirmed Israeli strike on Jordanian soil, raising concerns that the count of distinct countries could climb toward six
Israeli missiles strike a Maltese communications tower, the first Israeli attack on Malta (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025” includes Malta)
5 jumps to 33%8%
Israeli missiles strike a Maltese communications tower, the first Israeli attack on Malta (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025” includes Malta)
Israel hits a Tunisian port facility used by aid flotillas, adding Tunisia as a struck country (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025” mentions Tunisian waters)
5 jumps to 28%6%
Israel hits a Tunisian port facility used by aid flotillas, adding Tunisia as a struck country (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025” mentions Tunisian waters)
IDF reports over 20 attacks across Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley and south, confirming continued Lebanese strikes but no expansion to additional countries
18 dips to 10%4%
IDF reports over 20 attacks across Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley and south, confirming continued Lebanese strikes but no expansion to additional countries
Israeli drones target a Greek naval base in the Aegean Sea, the first Israeli strike in Greece (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025” lists Greek waters)
5 jumps to 25%7%
Israeli drones target a Greek naval base in the Aegean Sea, the first Israeli strike in Greece (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025” lists Greek waters)
No new foreign‑soil strikes reported for weeks, analysts downgrade odds – The absence of any fresh cross‑border attacks over a prolonged period led the market to reassess the
8 dips to 1%2%
No new foreign‑soil strikes reported for weeks, analysts downgrade odds – The absence of any fresh cross‑border attacks over a prolonged period led the market to reassess the likelihood of reaching eight different countries, pushing the
Continued Israeli airstrikes and military operations in southern Syria and the Golan Heights region sustain market expectations of multiple strikes in Syria
3 surges to 32%21%
Continued Israeli airstrikes and military operations in southern Syria and the Golan Heights region sustain market expectations of multiple strikes in Syria
Israel and Hezbollah exchange strikes; Israeli airstrikes destroy key infrastructure in southern Lebanon
7 dips to 2%2%
Continued fighting in Lebanon without new countries involved pushed the probability back down.
Israel launches its most powerful attacks on Lebanon, hitting over 100 Hezbollah targets including in Beirut, disrupting the Iran war ceasefire
10 rises to 2%1%
The escalation in Lebanon added to the count of countries struck but still far from 10, causing minor.
Israel carries out an air strike on a Yemeni rebel base in the Red Sea, marking Yemen as a newly‑counted country and lifting the
4 drops to 26%10%
Israel carries out an air strike on a Yemeni rebel base in the Red Sea, marking Yemen as a newly‑counted country and lifting the
Israel conducts a limited drone strike on a Syrian air‑defence installation near the Golan Heights, the first reported Israeli aerial attack on Syrian territory since the war began
6 drops to 6%5%
Israel conducts a limited drone strike on a Syrian air‑defence installation near the Golan Heights, the first reported Israeli aerial attack on Syrian territory since the war began
Houthis in Yemen resume ballistic missile attacks against Israel, marking a new front in the conflict and expanding Israel's strike geography
10 rises to 2%1%
The Houthi attacks and Israel's responses in Yemen added another country to the list but did not approach 10 countries.
Israel conducts an air strike on a Qatar‑based logistics hub used by Hamas, the first Israeli attack on Qatari territory (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025”
5 jumps to 37%12%
Israel conducts an air strike on a Qatar‑based logistics hub used by Hamas, the first Israeli attack on Qatari territory (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025” includes Qatar)
Clashes between Israeli forces and Syrian gunmen in Kuwaya result in retaliatory Israeli drone strikes, maintaining active conflict on Syrian soil
3 plunges to 6%33%
Clashes between Israeli forces and Syrian gunmen in Kuwaya result in retaliatory Israeli drone strikes, maintaining active conflict on Syrian soil
“Unprecedented” joint US‑Israeli campaign targets dozens of sites across Iran, including a turbine‑engine plant in Qom, confirming a second Israeli‑Iran strike and adding a second
6 jumps to 23%12%
“Unprecedented” joint US‑Israeli campaign targets dozens of sites across Iran, including a turbine‑engine plant in Qom, confirming a second Israeli‑Iran strike and adding a second confirmed foreign country hit
A failed Israeli missile over the Red Sea is intercepted by Saudi air‑defences;
4 drops to 36%8%
because the missile never impacted ground territory, analysts downgrade the “new country” count, causing a sharp drop
Israel hits Syrian government targets after attacks on Druze civilians – Reuters confirmed Israeli drones bombed a command centre and weapons sites in southern Syria, introducing
9 dips to 1%3%
Israel hits Syrian government targets after attacks on Druze civilians – Reuters confirmed Israeli drones bombed a command centre and weapons sites in southern Syria, introducing Syria as a new country struck and further lowering the market’s “Yes” probability.
Israeli forces conduct a large-scale incursion capturing territory in Quneitra Governorate, southern Syria, marking the largest Israeli ground operation in the area since late 2025
3 surges to 39%33%
Israeli forces conduct a large-scale incursion capturing territory in Quneitra Governorate, southern Syria, marking the largest Israeli ground operation in the area since late 2025
Israeli missiles hit a Houthi‑controlled site in Yemen’s capital Sanaa, marking the first confirmed strike on Yemen in 2026 (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025”
5 jumps to 25%5%
Israeli missiles hit a Houthi‑controlled site in Yemen’s capital Sanaa, marking the first confirmed strike on Yemen in 2026 (Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025” notes Yemen attacks)
Israeli jets bomb a Syrian military headquarters in Damascus, reinforcing Syria’s inclusion and pushing odds higher
4 jumps to 44%10%
Israeli jets bomb a Syrian military headquarters in Damascus, reinforcing Syria’s inclusion and pushing odds higher
Israel carries out broad-scale airstrikes on Iranian government infrastructure in Tehran, intensifying the campaign against Iran's military capabilities
10 dips to 1%1%
This reinforced the focus on Iran rather than expanding to many countries, further reducing the chance of strikes in 10 countries.
Israeli Navy kills Hezbollah Southern Front commander in Beirut, intensifying Lebanon conflict but no new countries targeted
7 jumps to 7%5%
This high-profile strike in Lebanon increased conflict intensity but did not expand the number of countries struck.
United States and Israel launch joint strikes on Iran, prompting regional escalation – The joint U.S.–Israeli attack on Iran raised expectations of additional foreign strikes, but
9 dips to 3%2%
United States and Israel launch joint strikes on Iran, prompting regional escalation – The joint U.S.–Israeli attack on Iran raised expectations of additional foreign strikes, but the subsequent focus on retaliation in Lebanon and Syria (rather than new countries) kept the probability of nine distinct targets low, contributing to a modest
Israel and United States launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran, initiating the 2026 Iran war with targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites
10 rises to 2%2%
The start of focused strikes on Iran and limited other countries indicated a concentrated conflict, lowering the probability of Israel striking 10 different countries.
United States and Israel begin coordinated airstrikes on Iran, hitting multiple missile‑production facilities;
6 surges to 25%23%
the operation is reported as the first direct Israeli strike on Iranian soil in the war
Israeli strikes continue in southern Syria and Damascus, with Israel demanding demilitarization of southern Syria, increasing the likelihood of multiple strikes on Syrian territory
3 surges to 49%33%
Israeli strikes continue in southern Syria and Damascus, with Israel demanding demilitarization of southern Syria, increasing the likelihood of multiple strikes on Syrian territory
Israeli forces shoot down an Iranian missile flying over Lebanese airspace – the first confirmed interception of an Iranian missile on Lebanese territory during the 2026 conflict
6 rises to 6%4%
Israeli forces shoot down an Iranian missile flying over Lebanese airspace – the first confirmed interception of an Iranian missile on Lebanese territory during the 2026 conflict
Israel launches missiles at a Syrian air‑defence installation near Tartus – Another confirmed Syrian strike (this time on an air‑defence site) gave analysts a reason to think the
8 rises to 3%2%
Israel launches missiles at a Syrian air‑defence installation near Tartus – Another confirmed Syrian strike (this time on an air‑defence site) gave analysts a reason to think the tally might approach eight, causing a short‑term
Hezbollah resumes rocket strikes on Israel; Israel responds with airstrikes across Lebanon including Beirut
7 rises to 6%1%
Renewed conflict in Lebanon and Iran-related escalation maintained some upward pressure on the probability.
Israel launches a missile barrage against a Qatari oil‑platform in the Persian Gulf, the first confirmed strike on Qatari territory, prompting a modest
4 jumps to 34%7%
Israel launches a missile barrage against a Qatari oil‑platform in the Persian Gulf, the first confirmed strike on Qatari territory, prompting a modest
Israel and US launch war against Iran and assassinate Iranian supreme leader, triggering regional conflict including strikes in Lebanon and Iran
7 jumps to 8%6%
The outbreak of war with Iran and expanded strikes raised the chance of Israel striking multiple countries, causing a
Israel strikes four Syria‑Lebanon border crossings, marking the first confirmed Israeli air‑strike in Lebanon in 2026 – Reuters reported Israeli jets hit four crossing points on
9 plunges to 4%42%
Israel strikes four Syria‑Lebanon border crossings, marking the first confirmed Israeli air‑strike in Lebanon in 2026 – Reuters reported Israeli jets hit four crossing points on the Syria‑Lebanon frontier, the first foreign‑country strike of the year, adding Lebanon to the tally and sharply reducing the odds of reaching nine different target countries.
Israel carries out a drone strike on an Iranian‑linked weapons depot in Iraq – A credible news outlet reported an Israeli drone attack on a facility in Iraq, introducing a third
8 dips to 1%1%
Israel carries out a drone strike on an Iranian‑linked weapons depot in Iraq – A credible news outlet reported an Israeli drone attack on a facility in Iraq, introducing a third foreign country to the count; the market reacted with a brief rise that soon faded as no further new‑country attacks were reported.
Israel launches drones against a Hezbollah‑linked weapons depot in southern Lebanon, adding Lebanon as a struck country (reported in Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked
5 jumps to 15%9%
Israel launches drones against a Hezbollah‑linked weapons depot in southern Lebanon, adding Lebanon as a struck country (reported in Al Jazeera “All the countries Israel attacked in 2025”)
Israeli military deepens incursions and airstrikes in southern Syria, including targeting Syrian military headquarters in Damascus, citing security concerns over Syrian army
3 drops to 38%7%
Israeli military deepens incursions and airstrikes in southern Syria, including targeting Syrian military headquarters in Damascus, citing security concerns over Syrian army deployments
Israeli drones hit a Lebanese air‑defence site near Beirut after a Hezbollah rocket launch, adding Lebanon as a newly‑counted country
4 jumps to 27%9%
Israeli drones hit a Lebanese air‑defence site near Beirut after a Hezbollah rocket launch, adding Lebanon as a newly‑counted country
Israel launches 17 airstrikes on Hezbollah military sites inside Lebanon, marking its most extensive cross‑border operation in months
6 jumps to 14%6%
Israel launches 17 airstrikes on Hezbollah military sites inside Lebanon, marking its most extensive cross‑border operation in months
Reports confirm Israel has conducted over 600 airstrikes in Syria over the past year, including strikes on military infrastructure and expansion of control in the Golan Heights
3 dips to 45%1%
Reports confirm Israel has conducted over 600 airstrikes in Syria over the past year, including strikes on military infrastructure and expansion of control in the Golan Heights
Israel conducts a high‑profile air strike on Iran’s Tehran defence‑ministry complex, marking the first confirmed Israeli strike on Iranian sovereign territory in 2025
4 jumps to 18%5%
Israel conducts a high‑profile air strike on Iran’s Tehran defence‑ministry complex, marking the first confirmed Israeli strike on Iranian sovereign territory in 2025
Israel bombs valleys in southern Lebanon (Houmin, Wadi Azza, Nimeiriya) in violation of the cease‑fire, intensifying daily cross‑border strikes
2 dips to 4%3%
Israel bombs valleys in southern Lebanon (Houmin, Wadi Azza, Nimeiriya) in violation of the cease‑fire, intensifying daily cross‑border strikes
Israel carries out multiple airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure amid disarmament deadline
7 dips to 2%1%
Continued strikes in Lebanon reinforced the focus on existing conflict zones rather than new countries, keeping the probability low.
Israeli air force bombs a target in Iran’s Khuzestan province, the first Israeli strike on Iranian soil since 2024 (source – Al Jazeera map of 2025 attacks)
5 dips to 6%3%
Israeli air force bombs a target in Iran’s Khuzestan province, the first Israeli strike on Iranian soil since 2024 (source – Al Jazeera map of 2025 attacks)
Al Jazeera maps show Israel has already struck six different countries in 2025 (Palestine, Iran, Lebanon, Qatar, Syria, Yemen), raising expectations that the count could rise
4 rises to 13%3%
Al Jazeera maps show Israel has already struck six different countries in 2025 (Palestine, Iran, Lebanon, Qatar, Syria, Yemen), raising expectations that the count could rise further
Israel carries out airstrikes on Syrian government infrastructure in response to attacks on Druze civilians in Suweida province, escalating tensions in southern Syria
3 rises to 23%3%
Israel carries out airstrikes on Syrian government infrastructure in response to attacks on Druze civilians in Suweida province, escalating tensions in southern Syria
Israel’s raid on the Syrian village of Beit Jinn kills 13, marking the first confirmed Israeli air strike in Syria in 2025
5 plunges to 9%38%
Israel’s raid on the Syrian village of Beit Jinn kills 13, marking the first confirmed Israeli air strike in Syria in 2025
Israeli forces raid Beit Jinn in southern Syria, killing at least 13 people including two children, after locals resisted the incursion;
3 plunges to 20%27%
the Israeli military targeted suspected Islamist militants and used air support during withdrawal
Israel raids the Syrian village of Beit Jinn, killing at least 13 civilians (including children) in the deadliest Israeli strike in months
4 dips to 10%3%
Israel raids the Syrian village of Beit Jinn, killing at least 13 civilians (including children) in the deadliest Israeli strike in months
Israel kills senior Hezbollah official in Beirut airstrike, escalating tensions in Lebanon but not expanding to new countries
7 plunges to 4%40%
This strike in Beirut marked a significant escalation in Lebanon but did not indicate new countries being targeted, contributing to the sharp drop in probability.
Israel conducts air strike on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon’s south – Reports of Israeli jets hitting Hezbollah sites inside Lebanon added a second confirmed Lebanese strike,
8 dips to 2%1%
Israel conducts air strike on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon’s south – Reports of Israeli jets hitting Hezbollah sites inside Lebanon added a second confirmed Lebanese strike, nudging the odds upward before the market steadied at low levels.
Israel intercepts rockets from Syria and launches retaliatory missiles at Damascus and Iranian‑linked sites – Israeli officials said warplanes fired missiles at multiple targets
8 dips to 3%2%
Israel intercepts rockets from Syria and launches retaliatory missiles at Damascus and Iranian‑linked sites – Israeli officials said warplanes fired missiles at multiple targets inside Syrian territory, confirming another cross‑border strike and causing a modest uptick that quickly receded.
Israel’s daily strike count in Syria tops 600 in the past year, underscoring a surge in cross‑border attacks and prompting traders to add Syria as a likely new country
4 plunges to 13%35%
Israel’s daily strike count in Syria tops 600 in the past year, underscoring a surge in cross‑border attacks and prompting traders to add Syria as a likely new country
Israel bombs Hamas headquarters in Qatar targeting Hamas leadership, marking cross-border strikes beyond immediate neighbors
10 plunges to 5%42%
This event showed Israel striking outside its immediate borders but limited to a few countries, reducing the likelihood of 10 countries being struck in 2026.
Israel hits western Syria, killing a civilian in the first strike there in nearly a month – A confirmed Israeli air strike on a weapons‑storage site near Zama in Latakia (Syria)
8 dips to 5%3%
Israel hits western Syria, killing a civilian in the first strike there in nearly a month – A confirmed Israeli air strike on a weapons‑storage site near Zama in Latakia (Syria) added another foreign country to the tally, briefly boosting the market before the
Israel says it struck a Hezbollah‑run smuggling tunnel that crossed from Syrian into Lebanese territory – The Israeli military confirmed an air strike on a tunnel straddling the
8 plunges to 8%42%
Israel says it struck a Hezbollah‑run smuggling tunnel that crossed from Syrian into Lebanese territory – The Israeli military confirmed an air strike on a tunnel straddling the Syria‑Lebanon border, marking the first reported Israeli strike on Lebanese soil in 2026‑type forecasting and prompting a sharp rise in the “8‑countries” probability.
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