Delcy Rodríguez’s position as Venezuela’s acting president since the January 2026 U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro underpins her dominant market position. Sworn in on January 5 following the operation that removed Maduro and his wife on narco-terrorism charges, Rodríguez—a longtime Chavista official and former vice president—has consolidated authority by installing loyalists, maintaining Chavista institutional control, and advancing oil-sector openings under U.S. oversight from figures such as Marco Rubio. This arrangement has produced measurable economic stabilization and diplomatic engagement without triggering elections or a full transition. Opposition figures including María Corina Machado and Edmundo González register minimal odds given their limited institutional access and the regime’s continuity. Low probabilities for U.S. officials or military figures reflect the market’s assessment that Rodríguez retains day-to-day de facto control through mid-2026, with any shift likely requiring new diplomatic or internal pressures before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDelcy Rodríguez 90%
María Corina Machado 2.9%
Dinorah Figuera 1.7%
Pete Hegseth <1%
$368,134 Vol.
$368,134 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Delcy Rodríguez
90%
María Corina Machado
3%
Dinorah Figuera
2%
Pete Hegseth
1%
Dan Caine
1%
Marco Rubio
1%
Nicolás Maduro
1%
Donald Trump
1%
Edmundo González
1%
No Head of State
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Delcy Rodríguez 90%
María Corina Machado 2.9%
Dinorah Figuera 1.7%
Pete Hegseth <1%
$368,134 Vol.
$368,134 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Delcy Rodríguez
$86,568 Vol.
90%
María Corina Machado
$52,368 Vol.
3%
Dinorah Figuera
$4,171 Vol.
2%
Pete Hegseth
$2,758 Vol.
1%
Dan Caine
$3,059 Vol.
1%
Marco Rubio
$5,960 Vol.
1%
Nicolás Maduro
$4,151 Vol.
1%
Donald Trump
$2,670 Vol.
1%
Edmundo González
$3,500 Vol.
1%
No Head of State
$66,886 Vol.
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$8,193 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$68,019 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$42,101 Vol.
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$3,393 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$7,128 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$7,209 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Delcy Rodríguez’s position as Venezuela’s acting president since the January 2026 U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro underpins her dominant market position. Sworn in on January 5 following the operation that removed Maduro and his wife on narco-terrorism charges, Rodríguez—a longtime Chavista official and former vice president—has consolidated authority by installing loyalists, maintaining Chavista institutional control, and advancing oil-sector openings under U.S. oversight from figures such as Marco Rubio. This arrangement has produced measurable economic stabilization and diplomatic engagement without triggering elections or a full transition. Opposition figures including María Corina Machado and Edmundo González register minimal odds given their limited institutional access and the regime’s continuity. Low probabilities for U.S. officials or military figures reflect the market’s assessment that Rodríguez retains day-to-day de facto control through mid-2026, with any shift likely requiring new diplomatic or internal pressures before year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 3:50 PM ET
Volume
$368,134End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 3:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Delcy Rodríguez’s position as Venezuela’s acting president since the January 2026 U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro underpins her dominant market position. Sworn in on January 5 following the operation that removed Maduro and his wife on narco-terrorism charges, Rodríguez—a longtime Chavista official and former vice president—has consolidated authority by installing loyalists, maintaining Chavista institutional control, and advancing oil-sector openings under U.S. oversight from figures such as Marco Rubio. This arrangement has produced measurable economic stabilization and diplomatic engagement without triggering elections or a full transition. Opposition figures including María Corina Machado and Edmundo González register minimal odds given their limited institutional access and the regime’s continuity. Low probabilities for U.S. officials or military figures reflect the market’s assessment that Rodríguez retains day-to-day de facto control through mid-2026, with any shift likely requiring new diplomatic or internal pressures before year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$368,134End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 3:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Delcy Rodríguez’s position as Venezuela’s acting president since the January 2026 U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro underpins her dominant market position. Sworn in on January 5 following the operation that removed Maduro and his wife on narco-terrorism charges, Rodríguez—a longtime Chavista official and former vice president—has consolidated authority by installing loyalists, maintaining Chavista institutional control, and advancing oil-sector openings under U.S. oversight from figures such as Marco Rubio. This arrangement has produced measurable economic stabilization and diplomatic engagement without triggering elections or a full transition. Opposition figures including María Corina Machado and Edmundo González register minimal odds given their limited institutional access and the regime’s continuity. Low probabilities for U.S. officials or military figures reflect the market’s assessment that Rodríguez retains day-to-day de facto control through mid-2026, with any shift likely requiring new diplomatic or internal pressures before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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