**Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced no broad federal cut to long-term capital gains rates through September 2026.** The top rate remains 20% plus the 3.8% net investment income tax, unchanged from prior years, after the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act made several TCJA provisions permanent and added targeted relief such as expanded Opportunity Zone benefits and small-business stock exclusions without touching headline rates. Proposals floated in 2026—indexing gains for inflation or raising the primary-residence exclusion above the current $250,000/$500,000 levels—have stayed exploratory. Bills such as the More Homes on the Market Act and No Tax on Home Sales Act remain in committee, with limited floor time before the November midterms and competing priorities in any lame-duck session. Traders therefore assign high probability to no enacted rate reduction by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated11% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
11% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced no broad federal cut to long-term capital gains rates through September 2026.** The top rate remains 20% plus the 3.8% net investment income tax, unchanged from prior years, after the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act made several TCJA provisions permanent and added targeted relief such as expanded Opportunity Zone benefits and small-business stock exclusions without touching headline rates.
Proposals floated in 2026—indexing gains for inflation or raising the primary-residence exclusion above the current $250,000/$500,000 levels—have stayed exploratory. Bills such as the More Homes on the Market Act and No Tax on Home Sales Act remain in committee, with limited floor time before the November midterms and competing priorities in any lame-duck session. Traders therefore assign high probability to no enacted rate reduction by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$345End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced no broad federal cut to long-term capital gains rates through September 2026.** The top rate remains 20% plus the 3.8% net investment income tax, unchanged from prior years, after the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act made several TCJA provisions permanent and added targeted relief such as expanded Opportunity Zone benefits and small-business stock exclusions without touching headline rates.
Proposals floated in 2026—indexing gains for inflation or raising the primary-residence exclusion above the current $250,000/$500,000 levels—have stayed exploratory. Bills such as the More Homes on the Market Act and No Tax on Home Sales Act remain in committee, with limited floor time before the November midterms and competing priorities in any lame-duck session. Traders therefore assign high probability to no enacted rate reduction by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$345End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced no broad federal cut to long-term capital gains rates through September 2026.** The top rate remains 20% plus the 3.8% net investment income tax, unchanged from prior years, after the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act made several TCJA provisions permanent and added targeted relief such as expanded Opportunity Zone benefits and small-business stock exclusions without touching headline rates. Proposals floated in 2026—indexing gains for inflation or raising the primary-residence exclusion above the current $250,000/$500,000 levels—have stayed exploratory. Bills such as the More Homes on the Market Act and No Tax on Home Sales Act remain in committee, with limited floor time before the November midterms and competing priorities in any lame-duck session. Traders therefore assign high probability to no enacted rate reduction by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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