Trump administration tax legislation enacted in 2025 through budget reconciliation extended key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and introduced targeted deductions without altering long-term capital gains rates. Subsequent congressional activity has prioritized other fiscal measures over rate reductions on investment income, leaving the 0/15/20 percent structure in place into 2026. With limited remaining legislative calendar before 2027 and competing priorities such as tariffs and spending restraint, traders assign 60.5 percent probability that no dedicated cut occurs. Historical patterns of tax policy sequencing and the absence of recent floor action or presidential directives on this specific change reinforce the current implied odds.