Trader consensus prices a 90% probability against President Trump formally creating a tariff dividend program—such as $2,000 rebate checks to low- and middle-income Americans funded primarily by tariff revenue—by June 30, 2026, due to the absence of signed federal legislation or executive action five months after his November 2025 proposal. Recent tariff escalations, including the May 1 announcement of 25% duties on European Union cars and trucks amid ongoing trade measures against China, Canada, and Mexico, have generated revenue but encountered legal setbacks, notably the May 7 U.S. Court of International Trade ruling invalidating 10% global tariffs under Section 122. With six weeks left and no visible congressional momentum or agency plans amid debt reduction priorities, substantial barriers persist.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$11,462 Vol.
$11,462 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$11,462 Vol.
$11,462 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 90% probability against President Trump formally creating a tariff dividend program—such as $2,000 rebate checks to low- and middle-income Americans funded primarily by tariff revenue—by June 30, 2026, due to the absence of signed federal legislation or executive action five months after his November 2025 proposal. Recent tariff escalations, including the May 1 announcement of 25% duties on European Union cars and trucks amid ongoing trade measures against China, Canada, and Mexico, have generated revenue but encountered legal setbacks, notably the May 7 U.S. Court of International Trade ruling invalidating 10% global tariffs under Section 122. With six weeks left and no visible congressional momentum or agency plans amid debt reduction priorities, substantial barriers persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ET
Volume
$11,462End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 90% probability against President Trump formally creating a tariff dividend program—such as $2,000 rebate checks to low- and middle-income Americans funded primarily by tariff revenue—by June 30, 2026, due to the absence of signed federal legislation or executive action five months after his November 2025 proposal. Recent tariff escalations, including the May 1 announcement of 25% duties on European Union cars and trucks amid ongoing trade measures against China, Canada, and Mexico, have generated revenue but encountered legal setbacks, notably the May 7 U.S. Court of International Trade ruling invalidating 10% global tariffs under Section 122. With six weeks left and no visible congressional momentum or agency plans amid debt reduction priorities, substantial barriers persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,462End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 90% probability against President Trump formally creating a tariff dividend program—such as $2,000 rebate checks to low- and middle-income Americans funded primarily by tariff revenue—by June 30, 2026, due to the absence of signed federal legislation or executive action five months after his November 2025 proposal. Recent tariff escalations, including the May 1 announcement of 25% duties on European Union cars and trucks amid ongoing trade measures against China, Canada, and Mexico, have generated revenue but encountered legal setbacks, notably the May 7 U.S. Court of International Trade ruling invalidating 10% global tariffs under Section 122. With six weeks left and no visible congressional momentum or agency plans amid debt reduction priorities, substantial barriers persist.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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