No legislative proposals or national emergency declarations have advanced toward authorizing a military draft in 2026, sustaining the all-volunteer force structure established decades ago. The Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act focused on automating Selective Service registration data starting in December rather than enabling conscription, with no congressional action to amend the Military Selective Service Act for inductions. Trader consensus reflects the high procedural barriers, including the need for specific legislation during a crisis exceeding volunteer recruitment capacity, alongside limited public or bipartisan support for reinstating the draft absent major escalations. Late-breaking developments such as a large-scale conflict requiring rapid force expansion could still shift assessments before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
$521,268 Vol.
$521,268 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
5% 確率
$521,268 Vol.
$521,268 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No legislative proposals or national emergency declarations have advanced toward authorizing a military draft in 2026, sustaining the all-volunteer force structure established decades ago. The Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act focused on automating Selective Service registration data starting in December rather than enabling conscription, with no congressional action to amend the Military Selective Service Act for inductions. Trader consensus reflects the high procedural barriers, including the need for specific legislation during a crisis exceeding volunteer recruitment capacity, alongside limited public or bipartisan support for reinstating the draft absent major escalations. Late-breaking developments such as a large-scale conflict requiring rapid force expansion could still shift assessments before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
音量
$521,268終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No legislative proposals or national emergency declarations have advanced toward authorizing a military draft in 2026, sustaining the all-volunteer force structure established decades ago. The Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act focused on automating Selective Service registration data starting in December rather than enabling conscription, with no congressional action to amend the Military Selective Service Act for inductions. Trader consensus reflects the high procedural barriers, including the need for specific legislation during a crisis exceeding volunteer recruitment capacity, alongside limited public or bipartisan support for reinstating the draft absent major escalations. Late-breaking developments such as a large-scale conflict requiring rapid force expansion could still shift assessments before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$521,268終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No legislative proposals or national emergency declarations have advanced toward authorizing a military draft in 2026, sustaining the all-volunteer force structure established decades ago. The Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act focused on automating Selective Service registration data starting in December rather than enabling conscription, with no congressional action to amend the Military Selective Service Act for inductions. Trader consensus reflects the high procedural barriers, including the need for specific legislation during a crisis exceeding volunteer recruitment capacity, alongside limited public or bipartisan support for reinstating the draft absent major escalations. Late-breaking developments such as a large-scale conflict requiring rapid force expansion could still shift assessments before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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