**New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s proposed two-percentage-point city income tax surcharge on earners above $1 million requires explicit authorization from the state legislature and Governor Kathy Hochul to take effect before the December 31, 2026 deadline.** Traders assign only a 3.1% chance of passage, reflecting the structural and political barriers that have persisted through the 2026 session. Hochul has repeatedly signaled resistance to broad income-tax increases on high earners, citing risks of out-migration, and instead backed alternative measures such as the pied-à-terre tax on high-value second homes that cleared the legislature earlier in the year. The regular legislative calendar is largely complete, leaving only a narrow window for any new revenue authority before year-end, and no major breakthrough in negotiations has emerged. The near-certain “No” consensus rests on these institutional checks, the governor’s consistent stance, and the successful pivot to other revenue tools. Even with strong polling support among city voters for the surcharge, the proposal remains stalled in Albany. Realistic paths to reversal before 2027 remain narrow and would require an unexpected shift by Hochul, a special session called late in the year, or rapid legislative action during the lame-duck period—developments that have not materialized in recent months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$65,285 Vol.
$65,285 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$65,285 Vol.
$65,285 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s proposed two-percentage-point city income tax surcharge on earners above $1 million requires explicit authorization from the state legislature and Governor Kathy Hochul to take effect before the December 31, 2026 deadline.** Traders assign only a 3.1% chance of passage, reflecting the structural and political barriers that have persisted through the 2026 session. Hochul has repeatedly signaled resistance to broad income-tax increases on high earners, citing risks of out-migration, and instead backed alternative measures such as the pied-à-terre tax on high-value second homes that cleared the legislature earlier in the year. The regular legislative calendar is largely complete, leaving only a narrow window for any new revenue authority before year-end, and no major breakthrough in negotiations has emerged.
The near-certain “No” consensus rests on these institutional checks, the governor’s consistent stance, and the successful pivot to other revenue tools. Even with strong polling support among city voters for the surcharge, the proposal remains stalled in Albany. Realistic paths to reversal before 2027 remain narrow and would require an unexpected shift by Hochul, a special session called late in the year, or rapid legislative action during the lame-duck period—developments that have not materialized in recent months.
Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 6:39 PM ET
Volume
$65,285End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 6:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s proposed two-percentage-point city income tax surcharge on earners above $1 million requires explicit authorization from the state legislature and Governor Kathy Hochul to take effect before the December 31, 2026 deadline.** Traders assign only a 3.1% chance of passage, reflecting the structural and political barriers that have persisted through the 2026 session. Hochul has repeatedly signaled resistance to broad income-tax increases on high earners, citing risks of out-migration, and instead backed alternative measures such as the pied-à-terre tax on high-value second homes that cleared the legislature earlier in the year. The regular legislative calendar is largely complete, leaving only a narrow window for any new revenue authority before year-end, and no major breakthrough in negotiations has emerged.
The near-certain “No” consensus rests on these institutional checks, the governor’s consistent stance, and the successful pivot to other revenue tools. Even with strong polling support among city voters for the surcharge, the proposal remains stalled in Albany. Realistic paths to reversal before 2027 remain narrow and would require an unexpected shift by Hochul, a special session called late in the year, or rapid legislative action during the lame-duck period—developments that have not materialized in recent months.
Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$65,285End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 6:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s proposed two-percentage-point city income tax surcharge on earners above $1 million requires explicit authorization from the state legislature and Governor Kathy Hochul to take effect before the December 31, 2026 deadline.** Traders assign only a 3.1% chance of passage, reflecting the structural and political barriers that have persisted through the 2026 session. Hochul has repeatedly signaled resistance to broad income-tax increases on high earners, citing risks of out-migration, and instead backed alternative measures such as the pied-à-terre tax on high-value second homes that cleared the legislature earlier in the year. The regular legislative calendar is largely complete, leaving only a narrow window for any new revenue authority before year-end, and no major breakthrough in negotiations has emerged. The near-certain “No” consensus rests on these institutional checks, the governor’s consistent stance, and the successful pivot to other revenue tools. Even with strong polling support among city voters for the surcharge, the proposal remains stalled in Albany. Realistic paths to reversal before 2027 remain narrow and would require an unexpected shift by Hochul, a special session called late in the year, or rapid legislative action during the lame-duck period—developments that have not materialized in recent months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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