Recent shifts by forecasters like the Cook Political Report have moved several Texas districts, including TX-15 to toss-up and TX-35 toward lean Republican, reflecting polling tightness and heavy spending in South Texas border seats. The 2025 mid-decade redistricting sought to expand the Republican edge from the prior 24-13 split, yet national midterm dynamics and Hispanic voter movement toward Democrats have sustained competitiveness in districts such as 9, 15, 28, and 34. With early voting set to begin in October ahead of the November 3 election, trader consensus around 10-13 seats captures uncertainty over whether Democrats can hold or modestly expand their current delegation amid these offsetting factors.