The new Florida congressional map enacted in May 2026 after a special legislative session and upheld by the state Supreme Court in June forms the central driver of trader positioning, shifting several previously competitive or Democratic-leaning districts toward Republicans and projecting a 24-4 split. With primaries scheduled for August 18 and the general election on November 3, early forecasts from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ rate most seats as Solid or Likely Republican while identifying a handful of Democratic-held districts that could remain viable. This structural change, combined with national midterm dynamics and limited recent polling, keeps probabilities tightly clustered around 9–12 Democratic seats. Further separation could emerge from primary outcomes, targeted campaign spending in battleground districts, or shifts in the generic ballot that alter turnout among key voting blocs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10 32%
12+ 32%
11 31%
9 30%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<4
8%
4
10%
5
8%
6
16%
7
25%
8
27%
9
30%
10
32%
11
31%
12+
32%
10 32%
12+ 32%
11 31%
9 30%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<4
$11 Vol.
8%
4
$548 Vol.
10%
5
$239 Vol.
8%
6
$0 Vol.
16%
7
$41 Vol.
25%
8
$40 Vol.
27%
9
$0 Vol.
30%
10
$0 Vol.
32%
11
$0 Vol.
31%
12+
$0 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.The new Florida congressional map enacted in May 2026 after a special legislative session and upheld by the state Supreme Court in June forms the central driver of trader positioning, shifting several previously competitive or Democratic-leaning districts toward Republicans and projecting a 24-4 split. With primaries scheduled for August 18 and the general election on November 3, early forecasts from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ rate most seats as Solid or Likely Republican while identifying a handful of Democratic-held districts that could remain viable. This structural change, combined with national midterm dynamics and limited recent polling, keeps probabilities tightly clustered around 9–12 Democratic seats. Further separation could emerge from primary outcomes, targeted campaign spending in battleground districts, or shifts in the generic ballot that alter turnout among key voting blocs.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
Volume
$879End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.The new Florida congressional map enacted in May 2026 after a special legislative session and upheld by the state Supreme Court in June forms the central driver of trader positioning, shifting several previously competitive or Democratic-leaning districts toward Republicans and projecting a 24-4 split. With primaries scheduled for August 18 and the general election on November 3, early forecasts from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ rate most seats as Solid or Likely Republican while identifying a handful of Democratic-held districts that could remain viable. This structural change, combined with national midterm dynamics and limited recent polling, keeps probabilities tightly clustered around 9–12 Democratic seats. Further separation could emerge from primary outcomes, targeted campaign spending in battleground districts, or shifts in the generic ballot that alter turnout among key voting blocs.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$879End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The new Florida congressional map enacted in May 2026 after a special legislative session and upheld by the state Supreme Court in June forms the central driver of trader positioning, shifting several previously competitive or Democratic-leaning districts toward Republicans and projecting a 24-4 split. With primaries scheduled for August 18 and the general election on November 3, early forecasts from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ rate most seats as Solid or Likely Republican while identifying a handful of Democratic-held districts that could remain viable. This structural change, combined with national midterm dynamics and limited recent polling, keeps probabilities tightly clustered around 9–12 Democratic seats. Further separation could emerge from primary outcomes, targeted campaign spending in battleground districts, or shifts in the generic ballot that alter turnout among key voting blocs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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