Recent inflation readings and labor market resilience have anchored trader consensus around no change at the January FOMC meeting, reflected in the 77.5% implied probability. Core CPI staying above the 2% target alongside unemployment near historic lows supports expectations that the Fed will maintain its current policy stance, with the 18.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike incorporating potential upside surprises in growth data. Market-implied odds track closely with the latest dot plot projections, while the December employment report and CPI release stand as key near-term catalysts that could adjust probabilities ahead of the January decision.