Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee’s January 2027 decision, positioning no change in the federal funds rate as the leading outcome at 58.5% implied probability. Core PCE inflation has remained above 3% through mid-2026 amid tariff effects and supply pressures, while unemployment hovers near 4.3% with steady job gains, reducing urgency for near-term easing and supporting some pricing of a 25 basis point hike at 23%. Recent hawkish communications and stronger-than-expected growth data have tempered cut probabilities to 13.5%, though forward-looking uncertainty around the September 2026 meeting and subsequent releases leaves room for shifts in the market-implied path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 58%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 4.3%
$71,022 Vol.
$71,022 Vol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
4%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
58%
25 bps increase
23%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 58%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 4.3%
$71,022 Vol.
$71,022 Vol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$13,983 Vol.
4%
25 bps decrease
$14,873 Vol.
14%
No change
$21,181 Vol.
58%
25 bps increase
$17,011 Vol.
23%
50+ bps increase
$3,974 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee’s January 2027 decision, positioning no change in the federal funds rate as the leading outcome at 58.5% implied probability. Core PCE inflation has remained above 3% through mid-2026 amid tariff effects and supply pressures, while unemployment hovers near 4.3% with steady job gains, reducing urgency for near-term easing and supporting some pricing of a 25 basis point hike at 23%. Recent hawkish communications and stronger-than-expected growth data have tempered cut probabilities to 13.5%, though forward-looking uncertainty around the September 2026 meeting and subsequent releases leaves room for shifts in the market-implied path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volume
$71,022End Date
Jan 27, 2027Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee’s January 2027 decision, positioning no change in the federal funds rate as the leading outcome at 58.5% implied probability. Core PCE inflation has remained above 3% through mid-2026 amid tariff effects and supply pressures, while unemployment hovers near 4.3% with steady job gains, reducing urgency for near-term easing and supporting some pricing of a 25 basis point hike at 23%. Recent hawkish communications and stronger-than-expected growth data have tempered cut probabilities to 13.5%, though forward-looking uncertainty around the September 2026 meeting and subsequent releases leaves room for shifts in the market-implied path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$71,022End Date
Jan 27, 2027Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee’s January 2027 decision, positioning no change in the federal funds rate as the leading outcome at 58.5% implied probability. Core PCE inflation has remained above 3% through mid-2026 amid tariff effects and supply pressures, while unemployment hovers near 4.3% with steady job gains, reducing urgency for near-term easing and supporting some pricing of a 25 basis point hike at 23%. Recent hawkish communications and stronger-than-expected growth data have tempered cut probabilities to 13.5%, though forward-looking uncertainty around the September 2026 meeting and subsequent releases leaves room for shifts in the market-implied path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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