Trump’s recent public endorsement of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, despite the central bank’s unanimous September 2026 quarter-point rate hike to 3.75-4.00% amid persistent inflation, underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt removal. Warsh, Trump’s May appointee with a longstanding personal relationship, defended the move citing elevated price pressures while emphasizing institutional independence, prompting the president to fault the broader board rather than his chair. Structural barriers further support consensus, including fixed terms, Supreme Court precedents limiting at-will dismissal, and the absence of vacancies for board stacking. Tail risks remain low but include sustained policy clashes if inflation accelerates or additional hikes materialize before midterms, potentially testing political tolerance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$24,103 Vol.
$24,103 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$24,103 Vol.
$24,103 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s recent public endorsement of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, despite the central bank’s unanimous September 2026 quarter-point rate hike to 3.75-4.00% amid persistent inflation, underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt removal. Warsh, Trump’s May appointee with a longstanding personal relationship, defended the move citing elevated price pressures while emphasizing institutional independence, prompting the president to fault the broader board rather than his chair. Structural barriers further support consensus, including fixed terms, Supreme Court precedents limiting at-will dismissal, and the absence of vacancies for board stacking. Tail risks remain low but include sustained policy clashes if inflation accelerates or additional hikes materialize before midterms, potentially testing political tolerance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$24,103End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s recent public endorsement of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, despite the central bank’s unanimous September 2026 quarter-point rate hike to 3.75-4.00% amid persistent inflation, underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt removal. Warsh, Trump’s May appointee with a longstanding personal relationship, defended the move citing elevated price pressures while emphasizing institutional independence, prompting the president to fault the broader board rather than his chair. Structural barriers further support consensus, including fixed terms, Supreme Court precedents limiting at-will dismissal, and the absence of vacancies for board stacking. Tail risks remain low but include sustained policy clashes if inflation accelerates or additional hikes materialize before midterms, potentially testing political tolerance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$24,103End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump’s recent public endorsement of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, despite the central bank’s unanimous September 2026 quarter-point rate hike to 3.75-4.00% amid persistent inflation, underpins the 96.3% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt removal. Warsh, Trump’s May appointee with a longstanding personal relationship, defended the move citing elevated price pressures while emphasizing institutional independence, prompting the president to fault the broader board rather than his chair. Structural barriers further support consensus, including fixed terms, Supreme Court precedents limiting at-will dismissal, and the absence of vacancies for board stacking. Tail risks remain low but include sustained policy clashes if inflation accelerates or additional hikes materialize before midterms, potentially testing political tolerance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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