Trump’s explicit reaffirmation of confidence in Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh on September 16, following the FOMC’s unanimous 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike to the 3.75–4% range, anchors the 96.3% market-implied probability against any firing attempt through year-end. Despite Trump’s criticism of the “hostile” board and calls for rates at 1% or lower, he stated he is “relying on Kevin” and respects the chair’s independence, consistent with Warsh’s May 2026 confirmation and longstanding personal ties. The Supreme Court’s June 2026 ruling expanded presidential removal authority for most independent agencies but explicitly preserved Fed insulation, eliminating straightforward legal avenues. Tail risks remain limited to an unforeseen escalation if persistent inflation or further rate actions create irreconcilable policy divergence before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$24,103 Vol.
$24,103 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$24,103 Vol.
$24,103 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s explicit reaffirmation of confidence in Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh on September 16, following the FOMC’s unanimous 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike to the 3.75–4% range, anchors the 96.3% market-implied probability against any firing attempt through year-end. Despite Trump’s criticism of the “hostile” board and calls for rates at 1% or lower, he stated he is “relying on Kevin” and respects the chair’s independence, consistent with Warsh’s May 2026 confirmation and longstanding personal ties. The Supreme Court’s June 2026 ruling expanded presidential removal authority for most independent agencies but explicitly preserved Fed insulation, eliminating straightforward legal avenues. Tail risks remain limited to an unforeseen escalation if persistent inflation or further rate actions create irreconcilable policy divergence before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$24,103End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s explicit reaffirmation of confidence in Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh on September 16, following the FOMC’s unanimous 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike to the 3.75–4% range, anchors the 96.3% market-implied probability against any firing attempt through year-end. Despite Trump’s criticism of the “hostile” board and calls for rates at 1% or lower, he stated he is “relying on Kevin” and respects the chair’s independence, consistent with Warsh’s May 2026 confirmation and longstanding personal ties. The Supreme Court’s June 2026 ruling expanded presidential removal authority for most independent agencies but explicitly preserved Fed insulation, eliminating straightforward legal avenues. Tail risks remain limited to an unforeseen escalation if persistent inflation or further rate actions create irreconcilable policy divergence before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$24,103End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump’s explicit reaffirmation of confidence in Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh on September 16, following the FOMC’s unanimous 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike to the 3.75–4% range, anchors the 96.3% market-implied probability against any firing attempt through year-end. Despite Trump’s criticism of the “hostile” board and calls for rates at 1% or lower, he stated he is “relying on Kevin” and respects the chair’s independence, consistent with Warsh’s May 2026 confirmation and longstanding personal ties. The Supreme Court’s June 2026 ruling expanded presidential removal authority for most independent agencies but explicitly preserved Fed insulation, eliminating straightforward legal avenues. Tail risks remain limited to an unforeseen escalation if persistent inflation or further rate actions create irreconcilable policy divergence before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions