The Federal Reserve's September 16 rate increase to the 3.75-4% target range, its first hike since 2023, reflects persistent inflation near 3.7% PCE alongside resilient growth and labor market conditions. New Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance and the updated dot plot—where 16 of 18 officials project at least one additional 25-basis-point move by year-end—have driven market-implied odds for another 2026 hike to 83.5%. Traders are pricing in a December increase amid limited progress toward the 2% target, though upcoming CPI, employment data, and October FOMC minutes could shift the path if inflation moderates faster than expected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated84% chance
NEW
$43,736 Vol.
NEW
$43,736 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
84% chance
NEW
$43,736 Vol.
NEW
$43,736 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve's September 16 rate increase to the 3.75-4% target range, its first hike since 2023, reflects persistent inflation near 3.7% PCE alongside resilient growth and labor market conditions. New Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance and the updated dot plot—where 16 of 18 officials project at least one additional 25-basis-point move by year-end—have driven market-implied odds for another 2026 hike to 83.5%. Traders are pricing in a December increase amid limited progress toward the 2% target, though upcoming CPI, employment data, and October FOMC minutes could shift the path if inflation moderates faster than expected.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$43,736End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve's September 16 rate increase to the 3.75-4% target range, its first hike since 2023, reflects persistent inflation near 3.7% PCE alongside resilient growth and labor market conditions. New Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance and the updated dot plot—where 16 of 18 officials project at least one additional 25-basis-point move by year-end—have driven market-implied odds for another 2026 hike to 83.5%. Traders are pricing in a December increase amid limited progress toward the 2% target, though upcoming CPI, employment data, and October FOMC minutes could shift the path if inflation moderates faster than expected.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$43,736End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve's September 16 rate increase to the 3.75-4% target range, its first hike since 2023, reflects persistent inflation near 3.7% PCE alongside resilient growth and labor market conditions. New Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance and the updated dot plot—where 16 of 18 officials project at least one additional 25-basis-point move by year-end—have driven market-implied odds for another 2026 hike to 83.5%. Traders are pricing in a December increase amid limited progress toward the 2% target, though upcoming CPI, employment data, and October FOMC minutes could shift the path if inflation moderates faster than expected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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