President Donald Trump’s renewed August 2026 effort to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over 2021 mortgage-fraud allegations is the dominant driver of trader sentiment on her departure timeline. The White House letter dated August 5 grants Cook 21 days to respond before any formal action, following the Supreme Court’s 5-4 June ruling that preserved her position pending litigation while her term extends to 2038. Markets price the probability of an expedited exit against the statutory “for cause” standard, historical Fed independence precedent, and potential further court challenges or congressional pushback. Key near-term catalysts include Cook’s formal reply, any ensuing district-court filings, and signals from incoming FOMC communications on monetary-policy continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
5%
October 31
9%
November 30
9%
December 31
7%
$3,221 Vol.
September 30
$1,084 Vol.
5%
October 31
$820 Vol.
9%
November 30
$380 Vol.
9%
December 31
$936 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.President Donald Trump’s renewed August 2026 effort to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over 2021 mortgage-fraud allegations is the dominant driver of trader sentiment on her departure timeline. The White House letter dated August 5 grants Cook 21 days to respond before any formal action, following the Supreme Court’s 5-4 June ruling that preserved her position pending litigation while her term extends to 2038. Markets price the probability of an expedited exit against the statutory “for cause” standard, historical Fed independence precedent, and potential further court challenges or congressional pushback. Key near-term catalysts include Cook’s formal reply, any ensuing district-court filings, and signals from incoming FOMC communications on monetary-policy continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$3,221End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.President Donald Trump’s renewed August 2026 effort to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over 2021 mortgage-fraud allegations is the dominant driver of trader sentiment on her departure timeline. The White House letter dated August 5 grants Cook 21 days to respond before any formal action, following the Supreme Court’s 5-4 June ruling that preserved her position pending litigation while her term extends to 2038. Markets price the probability of an expedited exit against the statutory “for cause” standard, historical Fed independence precedent, and potential further court challenges or congressional pushback. Key near-term catalysts include Cook’s formal reply, any ensuing district-court filings, and signals from incoming FOMC communications on monetary-policy continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$3,221End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Donald Trump’s renewed August 2026 effort to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over 2021 mortgage-fraud allegations is the dominant driver of trader sentiment on her departure timeline. The White House letter dated August 5 grants Cook 21 days to respond before any formal action, following the Supreme Court’s 5-4 June ruling that preserved her position pending litigation while her term extends to 2038. Markets price the probability of an expedited exit against the statutory “for cause” standard, historical Fed independence precedent, and potential further court challenges or congressional pushback. Key near-term catalysts include Cook’s formal reply, any ensuing district-court filings, and signals from incoming FOMC communications on monetary-policy continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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