The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects caution around Federal Reserve rate cuts before 2027, driven by April 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—fueled by energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, while core CPI pressures persist. The FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its April 28-29 meeting amid an 8-4 vote split with notable dissents, underscoring policy divisions as unemployment holds at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs. CME FedWatch Tool implies over 90% odds of no change at the June 16-17 meeting, with markets pricing zero basis point cuts through 2026 per major bank forecasts now delayed to mid-2027. Key catalysts ahead include May CPI release and June FOMC projections.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects caution around Federal Reserve rate cuts before 2027, driven by April 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—fueled by energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, while core CPI pressures persist. The FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its April 28-29 meeting amid an 8-4 vote split with notable dissents, underscoring policy divisions as unemployment holds at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs. CME FedWatch Tool implies over 90% odds of no change at the June 16-17 meeting, with markets pricing zero basis point cuts through 2026 per major bank forecasts now delayed to mid-2027. Key catalysts ahead include May CPI release and June FOMC projections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
May 5 2026
Market prices for Fed rate hitting 3.25% decline amid cautious Fed outlook
↓ 3.25% plunges to 44%22%
By early May 2026, market prices for the Fed rate hitting 3.25% had declined significantly from earlier highs, reflecting growing market skepticism about aggressive rate cuts given mixed economic data and ongoing political challenges to Fed independence.
The Department of Justice ended its criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence in setting interest rates based on economic conditions. This development helped stabilize market expectations and reduced political pressure on the Fed's rate decisions.
Apr 1 2026
Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook
↓ 3.25% drops to 66%5%
The Supreme Court considered President Trump's unprecedented effort to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence. This political uncertainty affected market confidence in aggressive rate cuts, contributing to lower prices for rate cut outcomes.
Mar 18 2026
Fed policymakers vote to keep rates unchanged amid inflation concerns
↓ 3.25% drops to 80%12%
The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee voted 10-2 to maintain interest rates, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation remaining above target despite a slowing labor market. This decision contributed to a decline in market expectations for deeper rate cuts in 2026.
Mar 11 2026
US jobs report shows slowing hiring, complicating Fed rate outlook
↓ 3.25% drops to 81%11%
The December jobs report showed a slowdown in hiring with only 50,000 jobs added, despite previous Fed rate cuts aimed at boosting employment. This data added uncertainty about the need for further rate cuts, influencing market prices downward for lower rate outcomes.
Feb 26 2026
Fed minutes reveal divided views on further rate cuts
↓ 3.25% dips to 92%1%
Minutes from the January FOMC meeting showed a split among Fed officials, with some favoring additional cuts if inflation declines, while others preferred holding rates steady. This division contributed to market uncertainty and declining prices for lower rate outcomes.
Feb 12 2026
Kevin Warsh nominated by President Trump as next Federal Reserve Chair
President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, raising market uncertainty due to Warsh's reputation as a rate hawk but recent support for lower rates. The nomination highlighted the political pressures on the Fed and concerns about maintaining its independence, influencing market expectations for future rate decisions.
Jan 28 2026
Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid economic uncertainty
↓ 3.25% drops to 89%5%
Ahead of the January FOMC meeting, the Fed signaled it would likely keep rates steady at about 3.6%, reflecting a cautious approach given mixed economic data and political pressures. This tempered market expectations for further rate cuts, contributing to a decline in prices for lower rate outcomes.
At the January FOMC meeting, the Fed decided to keep rates unchanged at about 3.6%, reflecting a balance between persistent inflation and signs of a stabilizing labor market. Chair Powell indicated the Fed would wait to assess economic developments before making further moves, dampening expectations for immediate rate cuts.
Jan 11 2026
DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Federal prosecutors initiated a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell related to his testimony about a multi-billion-dollar Fed building renovation. Powell stated the probe was a politically motivated attempt to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates, escalating tensions and impacting market confidence in Fed independence.
Jan 11 2026
Fed Chair Powell condemns Justice Department subpoenas as political pressure
Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly stated that subpoenas from the Justice Department were 'pretexts' aimed at forcing the Fed to cut rates, underscoring political tensions and the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions. This statement reassured markets about Fed independence, influencing rate cut expectations and market prices.
Dec 10 2025
Fed cuts interest rate by quarter point amid labor market concerns
↓ 3.25% dips to 89%1%
The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 0.25% for the third time in 2025, lowering it to about 3.6%, reflecting concerns about a weakening labor market despite ongoing inflation. The decision was marked by notable dissent, highlighting uncertainty within the Fed about the appropriate policy path.
Dec 10 2025
Federal Reserve cuts key interest rate by quarter point amid labor market concerns
↓ 3.25% jumps to 90%8%
At the December 9-10 FOMC meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 0.25% to about 3.6%, the third cut in 2025, reflecting concerns about a weakening labor market and economic uncertainty. The decision was close, with a 9-3 vote, highlighting divisions within the Fed. This move increased market expectations for lower rates such as 3.25%, pushing prices higher before they later declined.
Nov 18 2025
Fed officials signal divided views on further rate cuts amid inflation concerns
↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed a split among officials, with some favoring additional rate cuts if inflation declines, while others preferred holding rates steady due to persistent inflation and a stabilizing job market. This division contributed to fluctuating market expectations for rate cuts at various levels.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects caution around Federal Reserve rate cuts before 2027, driven by April 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—fueled by energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, while core CPI pressures persist. The FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its April 28-29 meeting amid an 8-4 vote split with notable dissents, underscoring policy divisions as unemployment holds at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs. CME FedWatch Tool implies over 90% odds of no change at the June 16-17 meeting, with markets pricing zero basis point cuts through 2026 per major bank forecasts now delayed to mid-2027. Key catalysts ahead include May CPI release and June FOMC projections.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects caution around Federal Reserve rate cuts before 2027, driven by April 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—fueled by energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, while core CPI pressures persist. The FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its April 28-29 meeting amid an 8-4 vote split with notable dissents, underscoring policy divisions as unemployment holds at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs. CME FedWatch Tool implies over 90% odds of no change at the June 16-17 meeting, with markets pricing zero basis point cuts through 2026 per major bank forecasts now delayed to mid-2027. Key catalysts ahead include May CPI release and June FOMC projections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
May 5 2026
Market prices for Fed rate hitting 3.25% decline amid cautious Fed outlook
↓ 3.25% plunges to 44%22%
By early May 2026, market prices for the Fed rate hitting 3.25% had declined significantly from earlier highs, reflecting growing market skepticism about aggressive rate cuts given mixed economic data and ongoing political challenges to Fed independence.
The Department of Justice ended its criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence in setting interest rates based on economic conditions. This development helped stabilize market expectations and reduced political pressure on the Fed's rate decisions.
Apr 1 2026
Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook
↓ 3.25% drops to 66%5%
The Supreme Court considered President Trump's unprecedented effort to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence. This political uncertainty affected market confidence in aggressive rate cuts, contributing to lower prices for rate cut outcomes.
Mar 18 2026
Fed policymakers vote to keep rates unchanged amid inflation concerns
↓ 3.25% drops to 80%12%
The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee voted 10-2 to maintain interest rates, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation remaining above target despite a slowing labor market. This decision contributed to a decline in market expectations for deeper rate cuts in 2026.
Mar 11 2026
US jobs report shows slowing hiring, complicating Fed rate outlook
↓ 3.25% drops to 81%11%
The December jobs report showed a slowdown in hiring with only 50,000 jobs added, despite previous Fed rate cuts aimed at boosting employment. This data added uncertainty about the need for further rate cuts, influencing market prices downward for lower rate outcomes.
Feb 26 2026
Fed minutes reveal divided views on further rate cuts
↓ 3.25% dips to 92%1%
Minutes from the January FOMC meeting showed a split among Fed officials, with some favoring additional cuts if inflation declines, while others preferred holding rates steady. This division contributed to market uncertainty and declining prices for lower rate outcomes.
Feb 12 2026
Kevin Warsh nominated by President Trump as next Federal Reserve Chair
President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, raising market uncertainty due to Warsh's reputation as a rate hawk but recent support for lower rates. The nomination highlighted the political pressures on the Fed and concerns about maintaining its independence, influencing market expectations for future rate decisions.
Jan 28 2026
Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid economic uncertainty
↓ 3.25% drops to 89%5%
Ahead of the January FOMC meeting, the Fed signaled it would likely keep rates steady at about 3.6%, reflecting a cautious approach given mixed economic data and political pressures. This tempered market expectations for further rate cuts, contributing to a decline in prices for lower rate outcomes.
At the January FOMC meeting, the Fed decided to keep rates unchanged at about 3.6%, reflecting a balance between persistent inflation and signs of a stabilizing labor market. Chair Powell indicated the Fed would wait to assess economic developments before making further moves, dampening expectations for immediate rate cuts.
Jan 11 2026
DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Federal prosecutors initiated a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell related to his testimony about a multi-billion-dollar Fed building renovation. Powell stated the probe was a politically motivated attempt to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates, escalating tensions and impacting market confidence in Fed independence.
Jan 11 2026
Fed Chair Powell condemns Justice Department subpoenas as political pressure
Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly stated that subpoenas from the Justice Department were 'pretexts' aimed at forcing the Fed to cut rates, underscoring political tensions and the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions. This statement reassured markets about Fed independence, influencing rate cut expectations and market prices.
Dec 10 2025
Fed cuts interest rate by quarter point amid labor market concerns
↓ 3.25% dips to 89%1%
The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 0.25% for the third time in 2025, lowering it to about 3.6%, reflecting concerns about a weakening labor market despite ongoing inflation. The decision was marked by notable dissent, highlighting uncertainty within the Fed about the appropriate policy path.
Dec 10 2025
Federal Reserve cuts key interest rate by quarter point amid labor market concerns
↓ 3.25% jumps to 90%8%
At the December 9-10 FOMC meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 0.25% to about 3.6%, the third cut in 2025, reflecting concerns about a weakening labor market and economic uncertainty. The decision was close, with a 9-3 vote, highlighting divisions within the Fed. This move increased market expectations for lower rates such as 3.25%, pushing prices higher before they later declined.
Nov 18 2025
Fed officials signal divided views on further rate cuts amid inflation concerns
↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed a split among officials, with some favoring additional rate cuts if inflation declines, while others preferred holding rates steady due to persistent inflation and a stabilizing job market. This division contributed to fluctuating market expectations for rate cuts at various levels.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions
"What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is " ↓ 3.5%" at 100%, followed by " ↓ 3.25%" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" has generated $1.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" is " ↓ 3.5%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is " ↓ 3.25%" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $1.4 million traded on “What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for " ↓ 3.5%" in the "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that " ↓ 3.5%" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" market has a growing discussion of 5 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions