Skip to main content
icon for Fed rate hike in 2026?
Economy·Fed

Fed rate hike in 2026?

icon for Fed rate hike in 2026?
Economy·Fed

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Oct 29

Dec 9

Oct 29

Dec 9

33% chance
Polymarket

$1,078,190 Vol.

33% chance
Polymarket

$1,078,190 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket's 67.5% implied probability on "No" for a Fed rate hike in 2026 reflects trader consensus that upside inflation risks, while elevated, fall short of prompting monetary tightening from the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. The primary catalyst driving the 32.5% "Yes" odds is April's hotter-than-expected CPI—headline up 3.8% year-over-year and core 2.8%, fueled by a 3.8% energy surge—prompting fed funds futures to price 30-35% hike odds by year-end and turning swaps hawkish. Yet, the Fed held steady at its April 29 FOMC meeting, with March dot plot medians forecasting a modest 3.4% rate by December amid 4.4% unemployment projections. Watch May nonfarm payrolls and June 11-12 FOMC for shifts in policy expectations.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,078,190
End Date
Dec 9, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket's 67.5% implied probability on "No" for a Fed rate hike in 2026 reflects trader consensus that upside inflation risks, while elevated, fall short of prompting monetary tightening from the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. The primary catalyst driving the 32.5% "Yes" odds is April's hotter-than-expected CPI—headline up 3.8% year-over-year and core 2.8%, fueled by a 3.8% energy surge—prompting fed funds futures to price 30-35% hike odds by year-end and turning swaps hawkish. Yet, the Fed held steady at its April 29 FOMC meeting, with March dot plot medians forecasting a modest 3.4% rate by December amid 4.4% unemployment projections. Watch May nonfarm payrolls and June 11-12 FOMC for shifts in policy expectations.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,078,190
End Date
Dec 9, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

icon for New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

55%
icon for Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

32%
icon for Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

37%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Fed rate hike in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 33% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 33¢, the market collectively assigns a 33% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Fed rate hike in 2026?" has generated $1.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Fed rate hike in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Fed rate hike in 2026?" is 33% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 33% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Fed rate hike in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.