Elevated inflation remains the dominant factor supporting the 54.5% market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. July CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, still well above the 2% target, while the July FOMC left the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% but saw three dissents favoring an immediate hike. Traders are balancing these pressures against signs of labor-market cooling and the possibility that inflation moderates further. The closely contested odds reflect uncertainty over whether incoming data will sustain the case for tightening or allow the Fed to stay on hold. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release on September 11 and the September FOMC meeting, both of which could shift the implied rate path decisively.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated55% chance
$7,314,144 Vol.
$7,314,144 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
55% chance
$7,314,144 Vol.
$7,314,144 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation remains the dominant factor supporting the 54.5% market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. July CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, still well above the 2% target, while the July FOMC left the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% but saw three dissents favoring an immediate hike. Traders are balancing these pressures against signs of labor-market cooling and the possibility that inflation moderates further. The closely contested odds reflect uncertainty over whether incoming data will sustain the case for tightening or allow the Fed to stay on hold. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release on September 11 and the September FOMC meeting, both of which could shift the implied rate path decisively.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$7,314,144End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation remains the dominant factor supporting the 54.5% market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. July CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, still well above the 2% target, while the July FOMC left the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% but saw three dissents favoring an immediate hike. Traders are balancing these pressures against signs of labor-market cooling and the possibility that inflation moderates further. The closely contested odds reflect uncertainty over whether incoming data will sustain the case for tightening or allow the Fed to stay on hold. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release on September 11 and the September FOMC meeting, both of which could shift the implied rate path decisively.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,314,155End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation remains the dominant factor supporting the 54.5% market-implied probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. July CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, still well above the 2% target, while the July FOMC left the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% but saw three dissents favoring an immediate hike. Traders are balancing these pressures against signs of labor-market cooling and the possibility that inflation moderates further. The closely contested odds reflect uncertainty over whether incoming data will sustain the case for tightening or allow the Fed to stay on hold. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release on September 11 and the September FOMC meeting, both of which could shift the implied rate path decisively.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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