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icon for What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?
Politics·Fed

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

icon for What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?
Politics·Fed

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

3.75% 14%

4.5% 14%

≤2.5% 13%

4.0% 13%

Polymarket
NEW

3.75% 14%

4.5% 14%

≤2.5% 13%

4.0% 13%

Polymarket
NEW

≤2.5%

$0 Vol.

13%

2.75%

$0 Vol.

6%

3.0%

$0 Vol.

6%

3.25%

$0 Vol.

6%

3.5%

$0 Vol.

7%

3.75%

$0 Vol.

14%

4.0%

$0 Vol.

13%

4.25%

$0 Vol.

13%

4.5%

$0 Vol.

14%

4.75%

$0 Vol.

13%

5.0%

$0 Vol.

6%

5.25%

$0 Vol.

6%

5.5%

$0 Vol.

5%

5.75%

$0 Vol.

6%

≥6.0%

$0 Vol.

5%

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2027 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 7-8, 2027. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).The dispersed probabilities across a wide range of potential federal funds rates at the end of 2027 reflect substantial uncertainty in the longer-term monetary policy outlook, with no single level commanding more than 14% market-implied odds. Traders are pricing in divergent paths driven by the trajectory of inflation relative to the Fed’s 2% target, labor market resilience, and real GDP growth amid evolving fiscal policy and global conditions. Key swing factors include whether core PCE inflation moderates steadily or reaccelerates, the pace of any remaining rate adjustments through 2026, and potential shifts in the neutral rate estimate. Upcoming FOMC projections, employment reports, and inflation releases through year-end will likely refine these probabilities as participants reassess the balance of risks.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2027 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 7-8, 2027.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2027 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 7-8, 2027. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$0
End Date
Jan 1, 2028
Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 7:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47de9d...
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2027 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 7-8, 2027. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).The dispersed probabilities across a wide range of potential federal funds rates at the end of 2027 reflect substantial uncertainty in the longer-term monetary policy outlook, with no single level commanding more than 14% market-implied odds. Traders are pricing in divergent paths driven by the trajectory of inflation relative to the Fed’s 2% target, labor market resilience, and real GDP growth amid evolving fiscal policy and global conditions. Key swing factors include whether core PCE inflation moderates steadily or reaccelerates, the pace of any remaining rate adjustments through 2026, and potential shifts in the neutral rate estimate. Upcoming FOMC projections, employment reports, and inflation releases through year-end will likely refine these probabilities as participants reassess the balance of risks.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2027 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 7-8, 2027.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2027 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 7-8, 2027. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$0
End Date
Jan 1, 2028
Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 7:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47de9d...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "≤2.5%" at 24%, followed by "3.75%" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 23, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

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The resolution rules for "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.