Israel’s October 27, 2026, Knesset election functions as the central near-term driver for trader views on Netanyahu’s tenure, with recent polls showing his Likud-led bloc projected at roughly 51–55 seats, short of the 61-seat majority needed to govern. Opposition parties, anchored by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s Together, hold a projected edge, though coalition formation after the vote could extend weeks or months. Netanyahu has signaled he will remain Likud leader and serve as opposition chief if necessary, while recent opposition leaders’ pledges of unity and his September UN address underscore efforts to consolidate support amid the ongoing conflicts with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran. The completed full Knesset term and absence of early dissolution have kept the timeline fixed, with post-election negotiations and any resulting government transition determining when a change in prime minister would occur.