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Geopolitics·Nuclear

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

icon for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Geopolitics·Nuclear

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

10% chance
Polymarket

$334,233 Vol.

10% chance
Polymarket

$334,233 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran has repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities in 2025-2026 and related sanctions pressures, with parliamentary proposals and statements from officials surfacing as recently as July 2026. Despite this rhetoric, Tehran has maintained its NPT status, participated actively in the 2026 Review Conference by submitting working papers, and engaged in U.S.-mediated diplomatic talks on enrichment limits, stockpile reductions, and verification. Withdrawal carries substantial costs, including loss of access to civilian nuclear cooperation and heightened international isolation, while Iran continues to assert Article IV rights within the treaty framework. Ongoing negotiations and a fragile post-conflict ceasefire further reduce near-term incentives for exit before 2027, aligning with the market's strong consensus against withdrawal.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$334,233
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran has repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities in 2025-2026 and related sanctions pressures, with parliamentary proposals and statements from officials surfacing as recently as July 2026. Despite this rhetoric, Tehran has maintained its NPT status, participated actively in the 2026 Review Conference by submitting working papers, and engaged in U.S.-mediated diplomatic talks on enrichment limits, stockpile reductions, and verification. Withdrawal carries substantial costs, including loss of access to civilian nuclear cooperation and heightened international isolation, while Iran continues to assert Article IV rights within the treaty framework. Ongoing negotiations and a fragile post-conflict ceasefire further reduce near-term incentives for exit before 2027, aligning with the market's strong consensus against withdrawal.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$334,233
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 10% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 10¢, the market collectively assigns a 10% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" has generated $334.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" is 10% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 10% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.