Recent parliamentary initiatives in Iran, including a triple-urgency withdrawal bill submitted in mid-to-late September 2026 and backed by 130 lawmakers, reflect heightened rhetoric tied to IAEA referrals to the UN Security Council and disputes over inspections following strikes on nuclear sites. Senior officials such as Mohsen Rezaei have conditioned any exit on U.S. actions while affirming continued adherence to the supreme leader’s nuclear fatwa and ongoing mediation efforts. President Masoud Pezeshkian has reiterated Iran’s non-weapons stance. No Article X notification has occurred, and prior bills stalled without a floor vote. Traders assign a 90.5% probability against withdrawal before 2027, viewing these steps as leverage amid stalled diplomacy rather than imminent formal departure, given the institutional, diplomatic, and security barriers involved.