Recent military actions by the United States and Israel, combined with sustained international sanctions and diplomatic pressure, have constrained Iran's nuclear advancement without evidence of a decision to weaponize. IAEA assessments through mid-2026 indicate Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles and enrichment capacity remain largely intact in hardened sites, yet verification access has been curtailed and no verified progress toward weaponization or testing has occurred since the early 2026 conflict. Traders assign 95.5% probability to no nuclear device by 2027 due to these barriers, historical patterns of Iranian restraint under external constraints, and the additional months typically required for full assembly even after a political go-ahead. Uncertainties persist around undetected parallel programs, shifts in Iranian leadership priorities, or lapses in enforcement that could accelerate timelines within the resolution window.