Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, damaging facilities and burying much of Tehran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile. IAEA reports through June 2026 confirm restricted inspector access and no resumption of verifiable enrichment, while U.S. intelligence and expert assessments place Iran’s breakout timeline at roughly nine to twelve months or longer amid degraded centrifuges, weaponization sites, and supply-chain bottlenecks. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed non-weapon commitments amid ongoing regional tensions. Traders assign only a 4.5% chance of a nuclear device before 2027 because these cumulative setbacks exceed typical recovery periods, though undetected material retrieval, accelerated rebuilding under new leadership, or external assistance could still compress timelines within the window.