Traders assign a 99.1% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious preparations or force buildups that would be required for such an operation within the brief remaining window. Beijing continues gray-zone activities, including July live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait and recent joint naval exercises, while Taiwan conducts its annual Han Kuang exercises with expanded reservist mobilization and littoral defense testing. These patterns align with longstanding coercive tactics rather than imminent kinetic action, consistent with assessments that prioritize sustained pressure over rapid escalation. A sudden cross-strait incident, unexpected leadership shift, or abrupt U.S. policy change could still introduce uncertainty before the resolution date.