Recent US-China diplomatic engagement, including the September 2026 Xi-Trump summit in Washington that produced an extended trade truce, has coincided with reduced PLA aerial incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ and a shift toward sustained gray-zone pressure via China Coast Guard patrols east of the island and around outlying features. Beijing continues to assert maritime jurisdiction and protest third-party EEZ talks without crossing into open hostilities, while Taiwan responds with readiness drills and arms modernization. These patterns, alongside ongoing bilateral channels and the absence of sudden escalatory triggers in the final months of 2026, underpin trader consensus that a military clash is unlikely before the 2027 threshold.