Traders assign a 92.9% implied probability to no direct military clash between Chinese and Taiwanese forces before the end of 2026, reflecting sustained gray-zone pressure rather than kinetic escalation. China has continued ADIZ incursions, live-fire drills in the Strait, and blockade simulations, yet monthly sortie volumes have fallen sharply in 2026 compared with 2024–2025 peaks, while Taiwan has responded with its largest-ever Han Kuang exercises, record reservist mobilization, and expanded U.S. security cooperation including joint coast-guard patrols. These patterns indicate calibrated signaling and deterrence on both sides, consistent with historical restraint despite heightened rhetoric and military preparations. The remaining resolution window offers limited time for sudden shifts absent a major triggering event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$3,208,193 Vol.
$3,208,193 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$3,208,193 Vol.
$3,208,193 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 92.9% implied probability to no direct military clash between Chinese and Taiwanese forces before the end of 2026, reflecting sustained gray-zone pressure rather than kinetic escalation. China has continued ADIZ incursions, live-fire drills in the Strait, and blockade simulations, yet monthly sortie volumes have fallen sharply in 2026 compared with 2024–2025 peaks, while Taiwan has responded with its largest-ever Han Kuang exercises, record reservist mobilization, and expanded U.S. security cooperation including joint coast-guard patrols. These patterns indicate calibrated signaling and deterrence on both sides, consistent with historical restraint despite heightened rhetoric and military preparations. The remaining resolution window offers limited time for sudden shifts absent a major triggering event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$3,208,193End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 92.9% implied probability to no direct military clash between Chinese and Taiwanese forces before the end of 2026, reflecting sustained gray-zone pressure rather than kinetic escalation. China has continued ADIZ incursions, live-fire drills in the Strait, and blockade simulations, yet monthly sortie volumes have fallen sharply in 2026 compared with 2024–2025 peaks, while Taiwan has responded with its largest-ever Han Kuang exercises, record reservist mobilization, and expanded U.S. security cooperation including joint coast-guard patrols. These patterns indicate calibrated signaling and deterrence on both sides, consistent with historical restraint despite heightened rhetoric and military preparations. The remaining resolution window offers limited time for sudden shifts absent a major triggering event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,208,193End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 92.9% implied probability to no direct military clash between Chinese and Taiwanese forces before the end of 2026, reflecting sustained gray-zone pressure rather than kinetic escalation. China has continued ADIZ incursions, live-fire drills in the Strait, and blockade simulations, yet monthly sortie volumes have fallen sharply in 2026 compared with 2024–2025 peaks, while Taiwan has responded with its largest-ever Han Kuang exercises, record reservist mobilization, and expanded U.S. security cooperation including joint coast-guard patrols. These patterns indicate calibrated signaling and deterrence on both sides, consistent with historical restraint despite heightened rhetoric and military preparations. The remaining resolution window offers limited time for sudden shifts absent a major triggering event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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