Lai Ching-te’s fixed four-year presidential term, which began in May 2024 and runs through May 2028, forms the core structural barrier to removal by December 2026. An opposition-led impeachment effort in the Legislative Yuan reached only a simple majority in May 2026 and fell short of the required two-thirds threshold, leaving his position intact. Low approval ratings near 38 percent reflect domestic pressures, yet no credible recall mechanism or early election exists before the scheduled 2028 vote. Trader consensus at 96 percent “No” tracks these institutional realities and the absence of acute health, scandal, or constitutional triggers in recent months. Late developments such as a sudden medical crisis, successful new impeachment vote, or major cross-strait escalation forcing resignation remain low-probability paths that could still shift outcomes within the narrow remaining window.