Turkey's next scheduled presidential and parliamentary elections are set for May 2028, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan serving his current term under the constitutional two-term limit unless parliament approves an early vote. Ruling AKP and MHP allies have stated no plans for snap elections before that date, while recent legal actions against the main opposition CHP—including the May 2026 court ouster of its leader—have further consolidated the ruling alliance's parliamentary position. Recent developments, such as the August 2026 passage of a limited PKK amnesty framework and diplomatic engagements, show continued governance continuity without signs of imminent leadership change or destabilizing crises. These factors align with trader assessments reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for "No," indicating low near-term risk of removal by the end of 2026 absent unforeseen institutional shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedErdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
6% chance
$608,182 Vol.
$608,182 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Earn 3.25%
6% chance
$608,182 Vol.
$608,182 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Earn 3.25%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey's next scheduled presidential and parliamentary elections are set for May 2028, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan serving his current term under the constitutional two-term limit unless parliament approves an early vote. Ruling AKP and MHP allies have stated no plans for snap elections before that date, while recent legal actions against the main opposition CHP—including the May 2026 court ouster of its leader—have further consolidated the ruling alliance's parliamentary position. Recent developments, such as the August 2026 passage of a limited PKK amnesty framework and diplomatic engagements, show continued governance continuity without signs of imminent leadership change or destabilizing crises. These factors align with trader assessments reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for "No," indicating low near-term risk of removal by the end of 2026 absent unforeseen institutional shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Volume
$608,182End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey's next scheduled presidential and parliamentary elections are set for May 2028, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan serving his current term under the constitutional two-term limit unless parliament approves an early vote. Ruling AKP and MHP allies have stated no plans for snap elections before that date, while recent legal actions against the main opposition CHP—including the May 2026 court ouster of its leader—have further consolidated the ruling alliance's parliamentary position. Recent developments, such as the August 2026 passage of a limited PKK amnesty framework and diplomatic engagements, show continued governance continuity without signs of imminent leadership change or destabilizing crises. These factors align with trader assessments reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for "No," indicating low near-term risk of removal by the end of 2026 absent unforeseen institutional shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$608,182End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Turkey's next scheduled presidential and parliamentary elections are set for May 2028, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan serving his current term under the constitutional two-term limit unless parliament approves an early vote. Ruling AKP and MHP allies have stated no plans for snap elections before that date, while recent legal actions against the main opposition CHP—including the May 2026 court ouster of its leader—have further consolidated the ruling alliance's parliamentary position. Recent developments, such as the August 2026 passage of a limited PKK amnesty framework and diplomatic engagements, show continued governance continuity without signs of imminent leadership change or destabilizing crises. These factors align with trader assessments reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for "No," indicating low near-term risk of removal by the end of 2026 absent unforeseen institutional shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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