Erdoğan’s current presidential term, secured in the 2023 election under Turkey’s presidential system, extends through 2028, with the next scheduled vote no earlier than May of that year. The constitution’s two-term limit creates barriers to immediate re-election absent a constitutional amendment or snap election, neither of which the ruling AKP currently commands the parliamentary supermajority to pursue. Recent reports highlight ongoing government actions against opposition figures, including arrests tied to the CHP, alongside speculation about Erdoğan’s health at age 71, yet no verified developments indicate an early exit or power transition by late 2026. Traders’ 94.5% “No” consensus reflects the absence of scheduled electoral or institutional mechanisms that could force a change within the narrow remaining window.