The extremely short window remaining until the end of 2026, combined with the absence of any large-scale amphibious mobilization or cross-strait assault preparations, underpins trader consensus that an invasion is highly unlikely. Chinese forces have instead conducted routine carrier training and area-denial drills in the western Pacific, alongside elevated but familiar gray-zone aircraft and vessel activity around Taiwan. These steps align with long-standing patterns of pressure and exercises rather than the sustained logistical buildup required for a full invasion. US assessments have highlighted ongoing PLA readiness shortfalls that make such an operation improbable on this compressed timeline. A late diplomatic shift at the upcoming APEC leaders’ meeting or an unforeseen miscalculation could theoretically alter conditions, though both remain remote given current postures and the weeks left before resolution.