EU sanctions enacted in 2025 impose a direct transaction ban on Nord Stream operations while advancing a broader phase-out of Russian pipeline gas imports by late 2027. Germany's government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz has sustained its explicit policy against any restart. These measures compound the pipelines' mothballed status after 2022 sabotage damage and Europe's continued diversification away from Russian supplies, producing the 97.5% trader consensus that the lines will not flow before 2027. A Ukraine peace agreement containing energy provisions, a successful legal challenge overturning the sanctions, or an acute European gas supply crisis could still shift timelines, though none appear imminent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$151,561 Vol.
$151,561 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$151,561 Vol.
$151,561 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
EU sanctions enacted in 2025 impose a direct transaction ban on Nord Stream operations while advancing a broader phase-out of Russian pipeline gas imports by late 2027. Germany's government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz has sustained its explicit policy against any restart. These measures compound the pipelines' mothballed status after 2022 sabotage damage and Europe's continued diversification away from Russian supplies, producing the 97.5% trader consensus that the lines will not flow before 2027. A Ukraine peace agreement containing energy provisions, a successful legal challenge overturning the sanctions, or an acute European gas supply crisis could still shift timelines, though none appear imminent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ET
Volume
$151,561End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
EU sanctions enacted in 2025 impose a direct transaction ban on Nord Stream operations while advancing a broader phase-out of Russian pipeline gas imports by late 2027. Germany's government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz has sustained its explicit policy against any restart. These measures compound the pipelines' mothballed status after 2022 sabotage damage and Europe's continued diversification away from Russian supplies, producing the 97.5% trader consensus that the lines will not flow before 2027. A Ukraine peace agreement containing energy provisions, a successful legal challenge overturning the sanctions, or an acute European gas supply crisis could still shift timelines, though none appear imminent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$151,561End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...EU sanctions enacted in 2025 impose a direct transaction ban on Nord Stream operations while advancing a broader phase-out of Russian pipeline gas imports by late 2027. Germany's government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz has sustained its explicit policy against any restart. These measures compound the pipelines' mothballed status after 2022 sabotage damage and Europe's continued diversification away from Russian supplies, producing the 97.5% trader consensus that the lines will not flow before 2027. A Ukraine peace agreement containing energy provisions, a successful legal challenge overturning the sanctions, or an acute European gas supply crisis could still shift timelines, though none appear imminent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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