Ukrainian forces have conducted a sustained counteroffensive along the Oleksandrivka axis in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts since January 2026, recapturing roughly 600–745 square kilometers and more than two dozen settlements by mid-August. Uspenivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast remains under Russian control following its occupation in late 2025, with Russian defensive positions established in the area. Recent geolocated reporting confirms Ukrainian advances farther north near Vodyanske and in other sectors, yet no confirmed territorial gains have reached Uspenivka itself amid ongoing Russian pressure around Pokrovsk and intensified strikes on Ukrainian logistics. Trader consensus on low near-term recapture odds reflects the pace of incremental Ukrainian progress, entrenched Russian lines, and competing priorities across the front. Scheduled developments that could shift dynamics include continued Ukrainian operations in the Huliaipole direction and any escalation or de-escalation signals from either side.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...?
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...?
$191,273 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
31%
September 30
10%
$191,273 Vol.
December 31
$24,687 Vol.
31%
September 30
$29,428 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Uspenivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.78301797308696° N, 36.386232040928824° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Ukrainian forces have conducted a sustained counteroffensive along the Oleksandrivka axis in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts since January 2026, recapturing roughly 600–745 square kilometers and more than two dozen settlements by mid-August. Uspenivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast remains under Russian control following its occupation in late 2025, with Russian defensive positions established in the area. Recent geolocated reporting confirms Ukrainian advances farther north near Vodyanske and in other sectors, yet no confirmed territorial gains have reached Uspenivka itself amid ongoing Russian pressure around Pokrovsk and intensified strikes on Ukrainian logistics. Trader consensus on low near-term recapture odds reflects the pace of incremental Ukrainian progress, entrenched Russian lines, and competing priorities across the front. Scheduled developments that could shift dynamics include continued Ukrainian operations in the Huliaipole direction and any escalation or de-escalation signals from either side.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Uspenivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.78301797308696° N, 36.386232040928824° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: May 27, 2026, 6:09 PM ET
Volume
$191,273End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 6:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Uspenivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.78301797308696° N, 36.386232040928824° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Ukrainian forces have conducted a sustained counteroffensive along the Oleksandrivka axis in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts since January 2026, recapturing roughly 600–745 square kilometers and more than two dozen settlements by mid-August. Uspenivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast remains under Russian control following its occupation in late 2025, with Russian defensive positions established in the area. Recent geolocated reporting confirms Ukrainian advances farther north near Vodyanske and in other sectors, yet no confirmed territorial gains have reached Uspenivka itself amid ongoing Russian pressure around Pokrovsk and intensified strikes on Ukrainian logistics. Trader consensus on low near-term recapture odds reflects the pace of incremental Ukrainian progress, entrenched Russian lines, and competing priorities across the front. Scheduled developments that could shift dynamics include continued Ukrainian operations in the Huliaipole direction and any escalation or de-escalation signals from either side.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Uspenivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.78301797308696° N, 36.386232040928824° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$191,273End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 6:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukrainian forces have conducted a sustained counteroffensive along the Oleksandrivka axis in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts since January 2026, recapturing roughly 600–745 square kilometers and more than two dozen settlements by mid-August. Uspenivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast remains under Russian control following its occupation in late 2025, with Russian defensive positions established in the area. Recent geolocated reporting confirms Ukrainian advances farther north near Vodyanske and in other sectors, yet no confirmed territorial gains have reached Uspenivka itself amid ongoing Russian pressure around Pokrovsk and intensified strikes on Ukrainian logistics. Trader consensus on low near-term recapture odds reflects the pace of incremental Ukrainian progress, entrenched Russian lines, and competing priorities across the front. Scheduled developments that could shift dynamics include continued Ukrainian operations in the Huliaipole direction and any escalation or de-escalation signals from either side.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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