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Politics·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027?

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027?
Politics·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

Netanyahu - Israel PM 39%

None before 2027 35%

Lecornu - France PM 10.5%

Merz - German Chancellor 4.3%

Polymarket

$528,153 Vol.

Netanyahu - Israel PM 39%

None before 2027 35%

Lecornu - France PM 10.5%

Merz - German Chancellor 4.3%

Polymarket

$528,153 Vol.

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$106,499 Vol.

39%

None before 2027

$113,996 Vol.

35%

Lecornu - France PM

$17,103 Vol.

11%

Merz - German Chancellor

$24,068 Vol.

4%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$13,349 Vol.

2%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$18,353 Vol.

2%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$16,723 Vol.

2%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$21,238 Vol.

1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$17,319 Vol.

1%

Putin - Russia President

$14,012 Vol.

1%

Macron - France President

$18,584 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$15,474 Vol.

1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$13,350 Vol.

1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$13,826 Vol.

1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$13,600 Vol.

1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$11,887 Vol.

1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$11,662 Vol.

<1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$14,052 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$13,445 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$13,231 Vol.

<1%

Trump - USA President

$13,005 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$13,376 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The closely contested probabilities between Netanyahu and the "none before 2027" outcome reflect Israel's persistent coalition fragility and security pressures alongside the durability of most other listed leaders through scheduled elections or term structures. France's repeated government turnover has lifted Lecornu into contention via recent parliamentary dynamics, while lower odds for figures such as Merz, Erdoğan, and Xi stem from stronger institutional backing or longer constitutional timelines. Key separation factors include upcoming confidence votes, coalition realignments, or health-related announcements that could accelerate exits, contrasted with stable majorities or managed successions that favor continuity. Trader consensus prices these variables against historical base rates for incumbents facing domestic or diplomatic headwinds.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$528,153
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The closely contested probabilities between Netanyahu and the "none before 2027" outcome reflect Israel's persistent coalition fragility and security pressures alongside the durability of most other listed leaders through scheduled elections or term structures. France's repeated government turnover has lifted Lecornu into contention via recent parliamentary dynamics, while lower odds for figures such as Merz, Erdoğan, and Xi stem from stronger institutional backing or longer constitutional timelines. Key separation factors include upcoming confidence votes, coalition realignments, or health-related announcements that could accelerate exits, contrasted with stable majorities or managed successions that favor continuity. Trader consensus prices these variables against historical base rates for incumbents facing domestic or diplomatic headwinds.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$528,153
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next leader out of power before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 22 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Netanyahu - Israel PM" at 39%, followed by "None before 2027" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next leader out of power before 2027?" has generated $528.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next leader out of power before 2027?," browse the 22 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next leader out of power before 2027?" is "Netanyahu - Israel PM" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "None before 2027" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next leader out of power before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.