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Geopolitics·UK Labour Leadership

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
Geopolitics·UK Labour Leadership

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)

Dec 31

Dec 31

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea 43%

Albanese - Australia PM 43%

Lecornu - France PM 42%

Putin - Russia President 42%

Polymarket
ใหม่

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea 43%

Albanese - Australia PM 43%

Lecornu - France PM 42%

Putin - Russia President 42%

Polymarket
ใหม่

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$22 ปริมาณ

43%

Albanese - Australia PM

$0 ปริมาณ

43%

Lecornu - France PM

$0 ปริมาณ

42%

Putin - Russia President

$0 ปริมาณ

42%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$0 ปริมาณ

42%

Macron - France President

$0 ปริมาณ

41%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$0 ปริมาณ

41%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$55 ปริมาณ

41%

Newsom - California Governor

$55 ปริมาณ

41%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$55 ปริมาณ

40%

None before 2027

$44 ปริมาณ

38%

Milei - Argentina President

$0 ปริมาณ

37%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$56 ปริมาณ

35%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$45 ปริมาณ

35%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$55 ปริมาณ

35%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$55 ปริมาณ

35%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$55 ปริมาณ

35%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$55 ปริมาณ

35%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$55 ปริมาณ

34%

Merz - German Chancellor

$28 ปริมาณ

34%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$32 ปริมาณ

33%

Trump - USA President

$25 ปริมาณ

16%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The market for the next leader removed from power before 2027 stays tightly bunched because most listed figures hold fixed terms or institutional positions extending well into 2027 or later, with no confirmed early elections, constitutional crises, or health events in the past month that would shift removal odds. Trader consensus around 44-45% for “none” and the top individual names reflects this stability, balanced against low-probability tail risks such as sudden cabinet collapses, legislative no-confidence votes, or external shocks. Recent polling aggregates and official statements show incumbents like Trump, Macron, and Erdoğan maintaining support levels consistent with their full terms, while others face routine coalition negotiations or scheduled votes that have not yet produced decisive momentum. Separation could occur through verified developments including snap parliamentary dissolutions, major corruption rulings, or sudden vacancies within the next six months, which would allow traders to reassess individual probabilities relative to the broad field.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$692
วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The market for the next leader removed from power before 2027 stays tightly bunched because most listed figures hold fixed terms or institutional positions extending well into 2027 or later, with no confirmed early elections, constitutional crises, or health events in the past month that would shift removal odds. Trader consensus around 44-45% for “none” and the top individual names reflects this stability, balanced against low-probability tail risks such as sudden cabinet collapses, legislative no-confidence votes, or external shocks. Recent polling aggregates and official statements show incumbents like Trump, Macron, and Erdoğan maintaining support levels consistent with their full terms, while others face routine coalition negotiations or scheduled votes that have not yet produced decisive momentum. Separation could occur through verified developments including snap parliamentary dissolutions, major corruption rulings, or sudden vacancies within the next six months, which would allow traders to reassess individual probabilities relative to the broad field.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$692
วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก

คำถามที่พบบ่อย

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" เป็นตลาดทำนายผลบน Polymarket ที่มี 22 ผลลัพธ์ที่เป็นไปได้ โดยนักเทรดซื้อและขายหุ้นตามสิ่งที่เชื่อว่าจะเกิดขึ้น ผลลัพธ์ที่นำอยู่ในปัจจุบันคือ "Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea" ที่ 43% ตามด้วย "Albanese - Australia PM" ที่ 43% ราคาสะท้อนความน่าจะเป็นจากฝูงชนแบบเรียลไทม์ ตัวอย่างเช่น หุ้นที่มีราคา 43¢ หมายความว่าตลาดให้โอกาส 43% กับผลลัพธ์นั้น อัตราเหล่านี้เปลี่ยนแปลงตลอดเวลาตามที่นักเทรดตอบสนองต่อข้อมูลและพัฒนาการใหม่ หุ้นในผลลัพธ์ที่ถูกต้องสามารถแลกได้ $1 ต่อหุ้นเมื่อตลาดตัดสินผล

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" เป็นตลาดที่เพิ่งสร้างใหม่บน Polymarket เปิดเมื่อ Jun 30, 2026 ในฐานะตลาดใหม่ นี่คือโอกาสของคุณที่จะเป็นหนึ่งในนักเทรดกลุ่มแรกที่ตั้งอัตราและสร้างสัญญาณราคาเริ่มต้น คุณยังสามารถบุ๊กมาร์กหน้านี้เพื่อติดตามปริมาณและกิจกรรมการซื้อขายเมื่อตลาดเริ่มคึกคัก

ในการเทรด "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" ดู 22 ผลลัพธ์ที่มีในหน้านี้ แต่ละผลลัพธ์แสดงราคาปัจจุบันที่เป็นตัวแทนความน่าจะเป็นโดยนัยของตลาด เลือกผลลัพธ์ที่คุณเชื่อว่ามีโอกาสสูงสุด เลือก "Yes" เพื่อเทรดสนับสนุนหรือ "No" เพื่อเทรดคัดค้าน ใส่จำนวนเงินแล้วกด "Trade" ถ้าผลลัพธ์ที่คุณเลือกถูกต้องเมื่อตลาดตัดสินผล หุ้น "Yes" ของคุณจ่าย $1 ต่อหุ้น ถ้าไม่ถูกต้อง จ่าย $0 คุณยังสามารถขายหุ้นได้ตลอดเวลาก่อนการตัดสินผลหากต้องการล็อกกำไรหรือตัดขาดทุน

ตัวเต็งปัจจุบันสำหรับ "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" คือ "Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea" ที่ 43% ซึ่งหมายความว่าตลาดให้โอกาส 43% กับผลลัพธ์นั้น ผลลัพธ์ที่ตามมาคือ "Albanese - Australia PM" ที่ 43% อัตราเหล่านี้อัปเดตแบบเรียลไทม์ตามที่นักเทรดซื้อและขายหุ้น จึงสะท้อนมุมมองรวมล่าสุดว่าอะไรมีโอกาสเกิดขึ้นมากที่สุด กลับมาดูบ่อยๆ หรือบุ๊กมาร์กหน้านี้เพื่อติดตามว่าอัตราเปลี่ยนไปอย่างไรเมื่อมีข้อมูลใหม่

กฎการตัดสินผลของ "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" กำหนดอย่างชัดเจนว่าต้องเกิดอะไรขึ้นเพื่อให้แต่ละผลลัพธ์ถูกประกาศเป็นผู้ชนะ รวมถึงแหล่งข้อมูลอย่างเป็นทางการที่ใช้ตัดสินผล คุณสามารถตรวจสอบเกณฑ์การตัดสินผลทั้งหมดได้ในส่วน "กฎ" บนหน้านี้เหนือความคิดเห็น เราแนะนำให้อ่านกฎอย่างละเอียดก่อนเทรด เพราะกฎระบุเงื่อนไขเฉพาะ กรณีพิเศษ และแหล่งข้อมูลที่ควบคุมการตัดสินตลาดนี้