**Recent US-Iran diplomatic progress has introduced measured optimism into shipping sentiment around the Strait of Hormuz, yet persistent security and insurance frictions keep near-term traffic expectations tightly contested.** Following the February 2026 closure amid conflict, daily commercial transits fell to single digits or low teens—roughly 5-10% of the pre-crisis ~60-vessel average—as operators rerouted around Africa and war-risk premiums surged. A mid-June interim framework has prompted a modest rebound, with select days recording 25-62 crossings and weekly totals reaching the highest levels since the shutdown, driven by pent-up crude and LNG movements. However, as of late June, live trackers show traffic still hovering around 12 vessels per day amid ongoing mine-clearance needs, IRGC coordination requirements, and isolated warnings that have reversed some sailings. For the end-of-July average, markets price roughly equal probability between very low (0-20) and moderate (40-60) daily volumes because shipowners remain cautious: elevated hull premiums, sanctions exposure, and the risk of renewed escalation could cap recovery well below historical norms even if the truce holds. Key swing factors include the pace of verified safe passage, any further diplomatic milestones before the 60-day window, and real-time AIS trends that would either reinforce or undermine the current fragile uptick in throughput.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?
0-20 47%
20-40 47%
80+ 47%
40-60 46%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
0-20
47%
20-40
47%
40-60
46%
60-80
46%
80+
47%
0-20 47%
20-40 47%
80+ 47%
40-60 46%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
0-20
$0 Vol.
47%
20-40
$0 Vol.
47%
40-60
$0 Vol.
46%
60-80
$0 Vol.
46%
80+
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Recent US-Iran diplomatic progress has introduced measured optimism into shipping sentiment around the Strait of Hormuz, yet persistent security and insurance frictions keep near-term traffic expectations tightly contested.**
Following the February 2026 closure amid conflict, daily commercial transits fell to single digits or low teens—roughly 5-10% of the pre-crisis ~60-vessel average—as operators rerouted around Africa and war-risk premiums surged. A mid-June interim framework has prompted a modest rebound, with select days recording 25-62 crossings and weekly totals reaching the highest levels since the shutdown, driven by pent-up crude and LNG movements. However, as of late June, live trackers show traffic still hovering around 12 vessels per day amid ongoing mine-clearance needs, IRGC coordination requirements, and isolated warnings that have reversed some sailings.
For the end-of-July average, markets price roughly equal probability between very low (0-20) and moderate (40-60) daily volumes because shipowners remain cautious: elevated hull premiums, sanctions exposure, and the risk of renewed escalation could cap recovery well below historical norms even if the truce holds. Key swing factors include the pace of verified safe passage, any further diplomatic milestones before the 60-day window, and real-time AIS trends that would either reinforce or undermine the current fragile uptick in throughput.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Jun 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Recent US-Iran diplomatic progress has introduced measured optimism into shipping sentiment around the Strait of Hormuz, yet persistent security and insurance frictions keep near-term traffic expectations tightly contested.**
Following the February 2026 closure amid conflict, daily commercial transits fell to single digits or low teens—roughly 5-10% of the pre-crisis ~60-vessel average—as operators rerouted around Africa and war-risk premiums surged. A mid-June interim framework has prompted a modest rebound, with select days recording 25-62 crossings and weekly totals reaching the highest levels since the shutdown, driven by pent-up crude and LNG movements. However, as of late June, live trackers show traffic still hovering around 12 vessels per day amid ongoing mine-clearance needs, IRGC coordination requirements, and isolated warnings that have reversed some sailings.
For the end-of-July average, markets price roughly equal probability between very low (0-20) and moderate (40-60) daily volumes because shipowners remain cautious: elevated hull premiums, sanctions exposure, and the risk of renewed escalation could cap recovery well below historical norms even if the truce holds. Key swing factors include the pace of verified safe passage, any further diplomatic milestones before the 60-day window, and real-time AIS trends that would either reinforce or undermine the current fragile uptick in throughput.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$0End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent US-Iran diplomatic progress has introduced measured optimism into shipping sentiment around the Strait of Hormuz, yet persistent security and insurance frictions keep near-term traffic expectations tightly contested.** Following the February 2026 closure amid conflict, daily commercial transits fell to single digits or low teens—roughly 5-10% of the pre-crisis ~60-vessel average—as operators rerouted around Africa and war-risk premiums surged. A mid-June interim framework has prompted a modest rebound, with select days recording 25-62 crossings and weekly totals reaching the highest levels since the shutdown, driven by pent-up crude and LNG movements. However, as of late June, live trackers show traffic still hovering around 12 vessels per day amid ongoing mine-clearance needs, IRGC coordination requirements, and isolated warnings that have reversed some sailings. For the end-of-July average, markets price roughly equal probability between very low (0-20) and moderate (40-60) daily volumes because shipowners remain cautious: elevated hull premiums, sanctions exposure, and the risk of renewed escalation could cap recovery well below historical norms even if the truce holds. Key swing factors include the pace of verified safe passage, any further diplomatic milestones before the 60-day window, and real-time AIS trends that would either reinforce or undermine the current fragile uptick in throughput.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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