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icon for L'AIEA visite-t-elle le site nucléaire d'Ispahan, de Fordow ou de Natanz d'ici le 31 juillet ?
Politique·Sujets De Négociation

L'AIEA visite-t-elle le site nucléaire d'Ispahan, de Fordow ou de Natanz d'ici le 31 juillet ?

icon for L'AIEA visite-t-elle le site nucléaire d'Ispahan, de Fordow ou de Natanz d'ici le 31 juillet ?
Politique·Sujets De Négociation

L'AIEA visite-t-elle le site nucléaire d'Ispahan, de Fordow ou de Natanz d'ici le 31 juillet ?

Oui

15% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU

$29,512 Vol.

Oui

15% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU

$29,512 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.**Recent US-Iran diplomatic friction and Iran's explicit denial of scheduled IAEA access to damaged sites explain the "No" edge at 57.5%.** Following 2025 US and Israeli strikes on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, Iran has restricted IAEA verification at the affected enrichment and storage facilities, citing sovereignty and ongoing safeguards obligations under its NPT agreement. As of mid-June 2026, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi and US officials (including statements from President Trump and Vice President Vance) indicated potential inspector returns within days or weeks under a 60-day negotiation window, yet Iranian Foreign Ministry spokespersons immediately rejected any new commitments, meetings, or protocols for visits to the struck sites. This contradiction, combined with the short July 31 deadline and historical patterns of delayed or conditional access after military incidents, underpins trader consensus that a verified IAEA visit to any of the three locations remains unlikely before the cutoff. Upcoming talks could still alter timelines, but current primary-source reporting shows no confirmed itinerary or Iranian facilitation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.

IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.

A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$29,512
Date de fin
31 juil. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jun 24, 2026, 12:35 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.**Recent US-Iran diplomatic friction and Iran's explicit denial of scheduled IAEA access to damaged sites explain the "No" edge at 57.5%.** Following 2025 US and Israeli strikes on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, Iran has restricted IAEA verification at the affected enrichment and storage facilities, citing sovereignty and ongoing safeguards obligations under its NPT agreement. As of mid-June 2026, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi and US officials (including statements from President Trump and Vice President Vance) indicated potential inspector returns within days or weeks under a 60-day negotiation window, yet Iranian Foreign Ministry spokespersons immediately rejected any new commitments, meetings, or protocols for visits to the struck sites. This contradiction, combined with the short July 31 deadline and historical patterns of delayed or conditional access after military incidents, underpins trader consensus that a verified IAEA visit to any of the three locations remains unlikely before the cutoff. Upcoming talks could still alter timelines, but current primary-source reporting shows no confirmed itinerary or Iranian facilitation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.

IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.

A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$29,512
Date de fin
31 juil. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jun 24, 2026, 12:35 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.

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Questions fréquentes

« L'AIEA visite-t-elle le site nucléaire d'Ispahan, de Fordow ou de Natanz d'ici le 31 juillet ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « L'AIEA visite le site nucléaire d'Ispahan, Fordow ou Natanz d'ici au 31 juillet ? » à 14%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 14¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 14% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « L'AIEA visite-t-elle le site nucléaire d'Ispahan, de Fordow ou de Natanz d'ici le 31 juillet ? » a généré $29.5K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jun 24, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « L'AIEA visite-t-elle le site nucléaire d'Ispahan, de Fordow ou de Natanz d'ici le 31 juillet ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « L'AIEA visite-t-elle le site nucléaire d'Ispahan, de Fordow ou de Natanz d'ici le 31 juillet ? » est « L'AIEA visite le site nucléaire d'Ispahan, Fordow ou Natanz d'ici au 31 juillet ? » à 14%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 14% à ce résultat. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « L'AIEA visite-t-elle le site nucléaire d'Ispahan, de Fordow ou de Natanz d'ici le 31 juillet ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.