Traders assessing whether Hamas will formally agree to disarm by year-end focus on the July 2026 framework announced by the US-led Board of Peace. Hamas publicly accepted a phased roadmap requiring inventory, storage, and eventual decommissioning of heavy and light weapons, tunnels, and production facilities under Palestinian technocratic oversight, tied to Israeli withdrawal and an end to strikes. Israel has expressed deep skepticism, insisting on verified demilitarization before any further pullback from positions such as the Yellow Line, while mediators continue refining implementation details over a projected 200–350 day timeline. Ongoing talks in Cairo and verification mechanisms remain central variables that could shift consensus on whether a binding commitment materializes within the resolution window.