Israeli forces have continued expanding their territorial control in Gaza beyond the yellow line established in the October 2025 ceasefire, issuing updated maps in late April that place roughly two-thirds of the territory under effective military oversight through an orange line buffer. This incremental advance coincides with a reported 35 percent rise in Israeli strikes since the Iran ceasefire, amid stalled negotiations over Hamas disarmament and humanitarian access. Prime Minister Netanyahu has reiterated demands for full demilitarization during recent talks with mediators, while international officials warn that the prolonged stalemate could solidify Gaza's division. These military and diplomatic dynamics shape trader assessments of whether further large-scale ground operations will occur before the market's resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$554,710 Vol.
Oct 31, 2025
June 30
16%
December 31
37%
$554,710 Vol.
June 30
$53,920 Vol.
16%
December 31
$24,047 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli forces have continued expanding their territorial control in Gaza beyond the yellow line established in the October 2025 ceasefire, issuing updated maps in late April that place roughly two-thirds of the territory under effective military oversight through an orange line buffer. This incremental advance coincides with a reported 35 percent rise in Israeli strikes since the Iran ceasefire, amid stalled negotiations over Hamas disarmament and humanitarian access. Prime Minister Netanyahu has reiterated demands for full demilitarization during recent talks with mediators, while international officials warn that the prolonged stalemate could solidify Gaza's division. These military and diplomatic dynamics shape trader assessments of whether further large-scale ground operations will occur before the market's resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ET
Volume
$554,710End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli forces have continued expanding their territorial control in Gaza beyond the yellow line established in the October 2025 ceasefire, issuing updated maps in late April that place roughly two-thirds of the territory under effective military oversight through an orange line buffer. This incremental advance coincides with a reported 35 percent rise in Israeli strikes since the Iran ceasefire, amid stalled negotiations over Hamas disarmament and humanitarian access. Prime Minister Netanyahu has reiterated demands for full demilitarization during recent talks with mediators, while international officials warn that the prolonged stalemate could solidify Gaza's division. These military and diplomatic dynamics shape trader assessments of whether further large-scale ground operations will occur before the market's resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$554,710End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli forces have continued expanding their territorial control in Gaza beyond the yellow line established in the October 2025 ceasefire, issuing updated maps in late April that place roughly two-thirds of the territory under effective military oversight through an orange line buffer. This incremental advance coincides with a reported 35 percent rise in Israeli strikes since the Iran ceasefire, amid stalled negotiations over Hamas disarmament and humanitarian access. Prime Minister Netanyahu has reiterated demands for full demilitarization during recent talks with mediators, while international officials warn that the prolonged stalemate could solidify Gaza's division. These military and diplomatic dynamics shape trader assessments of whether further large-scale ground operations will occur before the market's resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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