Israeli leaders have signaled reluctance to withdraw from Gaza under the fragile U.S.-backed ceasefire in place since October 2025. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the territory in early September 2026 and stated that forces would remain along the expanded “Yellow Line,” where the IDF now controls approximately 60 percent of the enclave. A September 1 special forces raid in Gaza City captured a senior Hamas internal security official, accompanied by airstrikes and limited ground activity. Israeli defense officials have prepared operational plans for a phased takeover of Gaza City, citing Hamas’s continued military rebuilding and refusal to disarm on terms acceptable to Israel. Ongoing strikes, ceasefire violations, and statements from Defense Minister Israel Katz on population relocation have kept escalation risks in focus for traders assessing timelines for a major ground offensive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$754,640 Vol.
Oct 30, 2025
December 31
9%
$754,640 Vol.
December 31
$105,008 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli leaders have signaled reluctance to withdraw from Gaza under the fragile U.S.-backed ceasefire in place since October 2025. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the territory in early September 2026 and stated that forces would remain along the expanded “Yellow Line,” where the IDF now controls approximately 60 percent of the enclave. A September 1 special forces raid in Gaza City captured a senior Hamas internal security official, accompanied by airstrikes and limited ground activity. Israeli defense officials have prepared operational plans for a phased takeover of Gaza City, citing Hamas’s continued military rebuilding and refusal to disarm on terms acceptable to Israel. Ongoing strikes, ceasefire violations, and statements from Defense Minister Israel Katz on population relocation have kept escalation risks in focus for traders assessing timelines for a major ground offensive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ET
Volume
$754,640End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli leaders have signaled reluctance to withdraw from Gaza under the fragile U.S.-backed ceasefire in place since October 2025. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the territory in early September 2026 and stated that forces would remain along the expanded “Yellow Line,” where the IDF now controls approximately 60 percent of the enclave. A September 1 special forces raid in Gaza City captured a senior Hamas internal security official, accompanied by airstrikes and limited ground activity. Israeli defense officials have prepared operational plans for a phased takeover of Gaza City, citing Hamas’s continued military rebuilding and refusal to disarm on terms acceptable to Israel. Ongoing strikes, ceasefire violations, and statements from Defense Minister Israel Katz on population relocation have kept escalation risks in focus for traders assessing timelines for a major ground offensive.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$754,640End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli leaders have signaled reluctance to withdraw from Gaza under the fragile U.S.-backed ceasefire in place since October 2025. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the territory in early September 2026 and stated that forces would remain along the expanded “Yellow Line,” where the IDF now controls approximately 60 percent of the enclave. A September 1 special forces raid in Gaza City captured a senior Hamas internal security official, accompanied by airstrikes and limited ground activity. Israeli defense officials have prepared operational plans for a phased takeover of Gaza City, citing Hamas’s continued military rebuilding and refusal to disarm on terms acceptable to Israel. Ongoing strikes, ceasefire violations, and statements from Defense Minister Israel Katz on population relocation have kept escalation risks in focus for traders assessing timelines for a major ground offensive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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