The Israeli Knesset’s formal dissolution on July 17, 2026, and the governing coalition’s explicit confirmation that voting will occur on the statutory October 27 date have anchored trader expectations for an on-schedule election. This timeline marks the first completion of a full four-year Knesset term since 1988, after earlier 2026 debates over potential early dissolution bills ultimately produced no shift. Subsequent procedural milestones, including the September 9 deadline for party list submissions to the Central Elections Committee, have advanced without interruption from security developments, coalition fractures, or legislative holds. With nationwide voting procedures now locked into the October window and no active measures underway to advance or postpone the date, the 89.5% implied probability for “Yes” reflects the consensus around these confirmed institutional steps.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated90% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 27, 2026
90% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 27, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if general voting in the election for the 26th Knesset takes place in Israel on October 27, 2026.
For the purposes of this market, "general voting" means nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel.
This market will still resolve to "Yes" if voting is postponed, cancelled, or disrupted in a limited number of individual localities or polling stations, so long as nationwide voting proceeds on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "No" if nationwide Knesset voting occurs before October 27, 2026 (e.g., due to a snap election), or October 27, 2026 passes without nationwide Knesset voting having occurred (e.g., due to nationwide postponement).
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the date of general election-day voting counts.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Israeli Knesset’s formal dissolution on July 17, 2026, and the governing coalition’s explicit confirmation that voting will occur on the statutory October 27 date have anchored trader expectations for an on-schedule election. This timeline marks the first completion of a full four-year Knesset term since 1988, after earlier 2026 debates over potential early dissolution bills ultimately produced no shift. Subsequent procedural milestones, including the September 9 deadline for party list submissions to the Central Elections Committee, have advanced without interruption from security developments, coalition fractures, or legislative holds. With nationwide voting procedures now locked into the October window and no active measures underway to advance or postpone the date, the 89.5% implied probability for “Yes” reflects the consensus around these confirmed institutional steps.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if general voting in the election for the 26th Knesset takes place in Israel on October 27, 2026.
For the purposes of this market, "general voting" means nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel.
This market will still resolve to "Yes" if voting is postponed, cancelled, or disrupted in a limited number of individual localities or polling stations, so long as nationwide voting proceeds on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "No" if nationwide Knesset voting occurs before October 27, 2026 (e.g., due to a snap election), or October 27, 2026 passes without nationwide Knesset voting having occurred (e.g., due to nationwide postponement).
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the date of general election-day voting counts.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, "general voting" means nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel.
This market will still resolve to "Yes" if voting is postponed, cancelled, or disrupted in a limited number of individual localities or polling stations, so long as nationwide voting proceeds on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "No" if nationwide Knesset voting occurs before October 27, 2026 (e.g., due to a snap election), or October 27, 2026 passes without nationwide Knesset voting having occurred (e.g., due to nationwide postponement).
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the date of general election-day voting counts.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Volume
$8,817End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if general voting in the election for the 26th Knesset takes place in Israel on October 27, 2026.
For the purposes of this market, "general voting" means nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel.
This market will still resolve to "Yes" if voting is postponed, cancelled, or disrupted in a limited number of individual localities or polling stations, so long as nationwide voting proceeds on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "No" if nationwide Knesset voting occurs before October 27, 2026 (e.g., due to a snap election), or October 27, 2026 passes without nationwide Knesset voting having occurred (e.g., due to nationwide postponement).
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the date of general election-day voting counts.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Israeli Knesset’s formal dissolution on July 17, 2026, and the governing coalition’s explicit confirmation that voting will occur on the statutory October 27 date have anchored trader expectations for an on-schedule election. This timeline marks the first completion of a full four-year Knesset term since 1988, after earlier 2026 debates over potential early dissolution bills ultimately produced no shift. Subsequent procedural milestones, including the September 9 deadline for party list submissions to the Central Elections Committee, have advanced without interruption from security developments, coalition fractures, or legislative holds. With nationwide voting procedures now locked into the October window and no active measures underway to advance or postpone the date, the 89.5% implied probability for “Yes” reflects the consensus around these confirmed institutional steps.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if general voting in the election for the 26th Knesset takes place in Israel on October 27, 2026.
For the purposes of this market, "general voting" means nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel.
This market will still resolve to "Yes" if voting is postponed, cancelled, or disrupted in a limited number of individual localities or polling stations, so long as nationwide voting proceeds on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "No" if nationwide Knesset voting occurs before October 27, 2026 (e.g., due to a snap election), or October 27, 2026 passes without nationwide Knesset voting having occurred (e.g., due to nationwide postponement).
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the date of general election-day voting counts.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, "general voting" means nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel.
This market will still resolve to "Yes" if voting is postponed, cancelled, or disrupted in a limited number of individual localities or polling stations, so long as nationwide voting proceeds on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "No" if nationwide Knesset voting occurs before October 27, 2026 (e.g., due to a snap election), or October 27, 2026 passes without nationwide Knesset voting having occurred (e.g., due to nationwide postponement).
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the date of general election-day voting counts.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,817End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Israeli Knesset’s formal dissolution on July 17, 2026, and the governing coalition’s explicit confirmation that voting will occur on the statutory October 27 date have anchored trader expectations for an on-schedule election. This timeline marks the first completion of a full four-year Knesset term since 1988, after earlier 2026 debates over potential early dissolution bills ultimately produced no shift. Subsequent procedural milestones, including the September 9 deadline for party list submissions to the Central Elections Committee, have advanced without interruption from security developments, coalition fractures, or legislative holds. With nationwide voting procedures now locked into the October window and no active measures underway to advance or postpone the date, the 89.5% implied probability for “Yes” reflects the consensus around these confirmed institutional steps.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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