Recent polling trends and the late-April formation of the Bennett-Lapid “Together” slate have kept trader consensus centered on Likud winning 25-29 Knesset seats. Multiple surveys from Channel 12 and others place the party at 25 or 26 seats, reflecting modest erosion among its 2022 voters who are shifting toward centrist and other right-wing lists. Netanyahu’s coalition has faced ongoing pressure over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions and early-election proposals, further contributing to the narrow spread between the 20-24 and 25-29 ranges. With the election still months away and no decisive shift in security or economic conditions, the current pricing reflects a tight, fragmented contest where small changes in turnout or late alliances could alter final seat totals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25-29 40%
30-34 32%
20-24 21%
35+ 13%
NEW
NEW
Oct 27, 2026
<20
12%
20-24
37%
25-29
40%
30-34
32%
35+
22%
25-29 40%
30-34 32%
20-24 21%
35+ 13%
NEW
NEW
Oct 27, 2026
<20
$1,815 Vol.
12%
20-24
$80 Vol.
37%
25-29
$179 Vol.
40%
30-34
$132 Vol.
32%
35+
$229 Vol.
22%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling trends and the late-April formation of the Bennett-Lapid “Together” slate have kept trader consensus centered on Likud winning 25-29 Knesset seats. Multiple surveys from Channel 12 and others place the party at 25 or 26 seats, reflecting modest erosion among its 2022 voters who are shifting toward centrist and other right-wing lists. Netanyahu’s coalition has faced ongoing pressure over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions and early-election proposals, further contributing to the narrow spread between the 20-24 and 25-29 ranges. With the election still months away and no decisive shift in security or economic conditions, the current pricing reflects a tight, fragmented contest where small changes in turnout or late alliances could alter final seat totals.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$2,435End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling trends and the late-April formation of the Bennett-Lapid “Together” slate have kept trader consensus centered on Likud winning 25-29 Knesset seats. Multiple surveys from Channel 12 and others place the party at 25 or 26 seats, reflecting modest erosion among its 2022 voters who are shifting toward centrist and other right-wing lists. Netanyahu’s coalition has faced ongoing pressure over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions and early-election proposals, further contributing to the narrow spread between the 20-24 and 25-29 ranges. With the election still months away and no decisive shift in security or economic conditions, the current pricing reflects a tight, fragmented contest where small changes in turnout or late alliances could alter final seat totals.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$2,435End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling trends and the late-April formation of the Bennett-Lapid “Together” slate have kept trader consensus centered on Likud winning 25-29 Knesset seats. Multiple surveys from Channel 12 and others place the party at 25 or 26 seats, reflecting modest erosion among its 2022 voters who are shifting toward centrist and other right-wing lists. Netanyahu’s coalition has faced ongoing pressure over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions and early-election proposals, further contributing to the narrow spread between the 20-24 and 25-29 ranges. With the election still months away and no decisive shift in security or economic conditions, the current pricing reflects a tight, fragmented contest where small changes in turnout or late alliances could alter final seat totals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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