Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election consistently projects Likud in the low-to-mid 20s seats, reflecting sustained erosion from its 32 seats in 2022 amid voter fatigue with Benjamin Netanyahu's long tenure, security concerns following the October 2023 attacks, and competition from Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party, which often ties or leads Likud in surveys. This positioning, combined with fragmentation across opposition alliances like Beyachad and procedural factors such as the electoral threshold and coalition arithmetic, sustains tight trader probabilities between the 20-24 and 25-29 seat brackets. Likud's August 17 primaries and the final campaign phase could shift momentum through turnout or late developments, while broader right-wing bloc shortfalls below 61 seats underscore the uncertain path to government formation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25-29 32%
20-24 31%
<20 18.0%
30-34 17%
$101,737 Vol.
$101,737 Vol.
Oct 27, 2026
<20
18%
20-24
31%
25-29
32%
30-34
17%
35+
7%
25-29 32%
20-24 31%
<20 18.0%
30-34 17%
$101,737 Vol.
$101,737 Vol.
Oct 27, 2026
<20
$33,123 Vol.
18%
20-24
$15,529 Vol.
31%
25-29
$24,412 Vol.
32%
30-34
$19,425 Vol.
17%
35+
$9,249 Vol.
7%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election consistently projects Likud in the low-to-mid 20s seats, reflecting sustained erosion from its 32 seats in 2022 amid voter fatigue with Benjamin Netanyahu's long tenure, security concerns following the October 2023 attacks, and competition from Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party, which often ties or leads Likud in surveys. This positioning, combined with fragmentation across opposition alliances like Beyachad and procedural factors such as the electoral threshold and coalition arithmetic, sustains tight trader probabilities between the 20-24 and 25-29 seat brackets. Likud's August 17 primaries and the final campaign phase could shift momentum through turnout or late developments, while broader right-wing bloc shortfalls below 61 seats underscore the uncertain path to government formation.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$101,737End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election consistently projects Likud in the low-to-mid 20s seats, reflecting sustained erosion from its 32 seats in 2022 amid voter fatigue with Benjamin Netanyahu's long tenure, security concerns following the October 2023 attacks, and competition from Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party, which often ties or leads Likud in surveys. This positioning, combined with fragmentation across opposition alliances like Beyachad and procedural factors such as the electoral threshold and coalition arithmetic, sustains tight trader probabilities between the 20-24 and 25-29 seat brackets. Likud's August 17 primaries and the final campaign phase could shift momentum through turnout or late developments, while broader right-wing bloc shortfalls below 61 seats underscore the uncertain path to government formation.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$101,737End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election consistently projects Likud in the low-to-mid 20s seats, reflecting sustained erosion from its 32 seats in 2022 amid voter fatigue with Benjamin Netanyahu's long tenure, security concerns following the October 2023 attacks, and competition from Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party, which often ties or leads Likud in surveys. This positioning, combined with fragmentation across opposition alliances like Beyachad and procedural factors such as the electoral threshold and coalition arithmetic, sustains tight trader probabilities between the 20-24 and 25-29 seat brackets. Likud's August 17 primaries and the final campaign phase could shift momentum through turnout or late developments, while broader right-wing bloc shortfalls below 61 seats underscore the uncertain path to government formation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions