Traders assign Flavio Bolsonaro a 94.5% implied probability of finishing first in Espírito Santo's 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state's status as a consistent right-leaning stronghold where Jair Bolsonaro prevailed decisively in 2018 and 2022. Recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys show Flávio leading or tied with Lula at 35-37% to 30-34%, amid federal government disapproval ratings above 50%. A fragmented field of lower-polling contenders, including Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado, further concentrates support. Late shifts among undecided voters (typically 14-15%) or unexpected consolidation behind an alternative could narrow the margin, though current evidence points to structural advantages for the PL senator.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 95%
Lula 4.0%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
Renan Santos <1%
$20,593 Vol.
$20,593 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Flavio Bolsonaro
95%
Lula
4%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Samara
<1%
Zema
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 95%
Lula 4.0%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
Renan Santos <1%
$20,593 Vol.
$20,593 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Flavio Bolsonaro
$9,434 Vol.
95%
Lula
$879 Vol.
4%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$1,245 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$964 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$966 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$640 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$706 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$612 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$1,074 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$1,119 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$993 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$974 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$988 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Traders assign Flavio Bolsonaro a 94.5% implied probability of finishing first in Espírito Santo's 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state's status as a consistent right-leaning stronghold where Jair Bolsonaro prevailed decisively in 2018 and 2022. Recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys show Flávio leading or tied with Lula at 35-37% to 30-34%, amid federal government disapproval ratings above 50%. A fragmented field of lower-polling contenders, including Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado, further concentrates support. Late shifts among undecided voters (typically 14-15%) or unexpected consolidation behind an alternative could narrow the margin, though current evidence points to structural advantages for the PL senator.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Volume
$20,593End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Traders assign Flavio Bolsonaro a 94.5% implied probability of finishing first in Espírito Santo's 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state's status as a consistent right-leaning stronghold where Jair Bolsonaro prevailed decisively in 2018 and 2022. Recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys show Flávio leading or tied with Lula at 35-37% to 30-34%, amid federal government disapproval ratings above 50%. A fragmented field of lower-polling contenders, including Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado, further concentrates support. Late shifts among undecided voters (typically 14-15%) or unexpected consolidation behind an alternative could narrow the margin, though current evidence points to structural advantages for the PL senator.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$20,593End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign Flavio Bolsonaro a 94.5% implied probability of finishing first in Espírito Santo's 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state's status as a consistent right-leaning stronghold where Jair Bolsonaro prevailed decisively in 2018 and 2022. Recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys show Flávio leading or tied with Lula at 35-37% to 30-34%, amid federal government disapproval ratings above 50%. A fragmented field of lower-polling contenders, including Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado, further concentrates support. Late shifts among undecided voters (typically 14-15%) or unexpected consolidation behind an alternative could narrow the margin, though current evidence points to structural advantages for the PL senator.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions