**Renan Santos leads the market for third place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, followed by Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado, reflecting recent polling averages and voter shifts away from the polarized Lula–Flávio Bolsonaro contest.** Lula (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) consistently top surveys at roughly 40–46% and 37–44% respectively, leaving limited room for others. Among the remaining field of 13 candidates, Renan Santos (Missão) has consolidated support in the low-to-mid single digits, particularly among younger and online-engaged voters drawn to his libertarian platform and social-media focus. Augusto Cury (Avante), a psychiatrist and author making his electoral debut, rose after high-profile interviews and appeals to voters disillusioned with establishment polarization, though his numbers have fluctuated. Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), a former Goiás governor running as a center-right alternative, registers lower and more stable support around 3%. Late-September polls from AtlasIntel, Quaest, Nexus, and others show Renan frequently ahead of Cury for third, with Caiado trailing, consistent with the current pricing. Minor candidates such as Romeu Zema (Novo) and others remain below 2%. With voting days away, final campaign events, turnout among independents, and any late shifts in rejection or debate performance could still alter the exact ordering among the lower-polling contenders.