Skip to main content
icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Romeu Zema 33%

Renan Santos 31%

Ronaldo Caiado 19%

Michelle Bolsonaro 5.5%

Polymarket

$280,350 Vol.

Romeu Zema 33%

Renan Santos 31%

Ronaldo Caiado 19%

Michelle Bolsonaro 5.5%

Polymarket

$280,350 Vol.

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$10,655 Vol.

33%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$61,980 Vol.

31%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$16,728 Vol.

19%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$4,817 Vol.

6%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$7,036 Vol.

5%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$14,354 Vol.

4%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$6,116 Vol.

2%

icon for Helder Barbalho

Helder Barbalho

$132 Vol.

2%

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$5,286 Vol.

1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$4,092 Vol.

1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$4,260 Vol.

1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$2,559 Vol.

1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$4,328 Vol.

1%

icon for Tereza Cristina

Tereza Cristina

$654 Vol.

1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$39,622 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$93,195 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$4,536 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).The tight race for third place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential election reflects a fragmented right-of-center field behind frontrunners Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent AtlasIntel and Quaest surveys show Renan Santos occasionally edging Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado in simulated first-round scenarios, driven by Santos’ visibility through the Missão party and Free Brazil Movement base. Zema’s established record as Minas Gerais governor and Caiado’s PSD nomination provide counterbalancing strength, while lower-polling names such as Michelle Bolsonaro and Tarcísio de Freitas remain marginal. Trader consensus prices the Zema-Santos matchup near even because no candidate has consolidated opposition votes or secured decisive endorsements in the latest polling wave. Further surveys before the registration deadline or shifts in right-wing coalition talks could widen the gap.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$280,350
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).The tight race for third place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential election reflects a fragmented right-of-center field behind frontrunners Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent AtlasIntel and Quaest surveys show Renan Santos occasionally edging Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado in simulated first-round scenarios, driven by Santos’ visibility through the Missão party and Free Brazil Movement base. Zema’s established record as Minas Gerais governor and Caiado’s PSD nomination provide counterbalancing strength, while lower-polling names such as Michelle Bolsonaro and Tarcísio de Freitas remain marginal. Trader consensus prices the Zema-Santos matchup near even because no candidate has consolidated opposition votes or secured decisive endorsements in the latest polling wave. Further surveys before the registration deadline or shifts in right-wing coalition talks could widen the gap.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$280,350
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Related

icon for Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

61%
icon for Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

45%
icon for Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

16%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Romeu Zema" at 33%, followed by "Renan Santos" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" has generated $280.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" is "Romeu Zema" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Renan Santos" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.