The Bahia gubernatorial race remains a tight contest between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent state polls, including Real Time Big Data surveys from early August, show the pair within the margin of error in both first- and second-round scenarios, with alternating narrow leads that mirror the market's near-even split. The August 9 televised debate and Rodrigues's stabilized approval ratings on education and infrastructure have helped the incumbent maintain a slight trader edge, while Neto's urban base and alignment with national opposition forces sustain his competitiveness. Minor candidates register negligible support, leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout shifts or late campaign developments in this rematch.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJerônimo Rodrigues 52%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$107,589 Vol.
$107,589 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
52%
ACM Neto
48%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 52%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$107,589 Vol.
$107,589 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$34,528 Vol.
52%
ACM Neto
$35,881 Vol.
48%
Kleber Rosa
$11,407 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$9,514 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Bahia gubernatorial race remains a tight contest between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent state polls, including Real Time Big Data surveys from early August, show the pair within the margin of error in both first- and second-round scenarios, with alternating narrow leads that mirror the market's near-even split. The August 9 televised debate and Rodrigues's stabilized approval ratings on education and infrastructure have helped the incumbent maintain a slight trader edge, while Neto's urban base and alignment with national opposition forces sustain his competitiveness. Minor candidates register negligible support, leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout shifts or late campaign developments in this rematch.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$107,589End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Bahia gubernatorial race remains a tight contest between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent state polls, including Real Time Big Data surveys from early August, show the pair within the margin of error in both first- and second-round scenarios, with alternating narrow leads that mirror the market's near-even split. The August 9 televised debate and Rodrigues's stabilized approval ratings on education and infrastructure have helped the incumbent maintain a slight trader edge, while Neto's urban base and alignment with national opposition forces sustain his competitiveness. Minor candidates register negligible support, leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout shifts or late campaign developments in this rematch.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$107,589End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial race remains a tight contest between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent state polls, including Real Time Big Data surveys from early August, show the pair within the margin of error in both first- and second-round scenarios, with alternating narrow leads that mirror the market's near-even split. The August 9 televised debate and Rodrigues's stabilized approval ratings on education and infrastructure have helped the incumbent maintain a slight trader edge, while Neto's urban base and alignment with national opposition forces sustain his competitiveness. Minor candidates register negligible support, leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout shifts or late campaign developments in this rematch.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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