Recent polling from institutes including Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas shows incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) locked in a technical tie or narrow edge for the October 4 first round in Bahia, with both advancing comfortably to a likely runoff on October 25. Neto has emphasized public security while Rodrigues highlights his administration’s approval ratings near 56 percent and alignment with federal PT priorities. Minor candidates register negligible support, consolidating the contest around this rematch of the 2022 race. Trader pricing near even odds reflects the narrow margins, undecided voters, and limited recent shifts that could still alter first-round vote shares before election day.