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Elections·Brazil

Bahia Governor Election Winner

icon for Bahia Governor Election Winner
Elections·Brazil

Bahia Governor Election Winner

Jerônimo Rodrigues 52%

ACM Neto 48%

Kleber Rosa <1%

João Roma <1%

Polymarket

$13,682 Vol.

Jerônimo Rodrigues 52%

ACM Neto 48%

Kleber Rosa <1%

João Roma <1%

Polymarket

$13,682 Vol.

icon for Jerônimo Rodrigues

Jerônimo Rodrigues

$3,666 Vol.

52%

icon for ACM Neto

ACM Neto

$3,648 Vol.

48%

icon for Kleber Rosa

Kleber Rosa

$1,281 Vol.

<1%

icon for João Roma

João Roma

$966 Vol.

<1%

icon for Bruno Soares Reis

Bruno Soares Reis

$1,060 Vol.

<1%

icon for José Carlos Aleluia

José Carlos Aleluia

$1,938 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa

Rui Costa

$1,124 Vol.

<1%

The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent Paraná Pesquisas (May 10–12) shows challenger ACM Neto leading incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues 48%–39% in first-round intentions for Bahia's October 4 gubernatorial election, echoing April Quaest technical ties and extending Neto's polling edge amid his Salvador popularity versus Rodrigues' interior stronghold. Trader consensus nonetheless prices Rodrigues slightly ahead at 52%, reflecting incumbency advantages in the longtime PT bastion, historical poll underestimation of the party, and undecided voters (5%). Right-wing endorsements like Eduardo Bolsonaro's bolster Neto, while PT unity rallies sustain Rodrigues; upcoming party conventions and national coattails could force a runoff or create separation in this polarized contest.

The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$13,682
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent Paraná Pesquisas (May 10–12) shows challenger ACM Neto leading incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues 48%–39% in first-round intentions for Bahia's October 4 gubernatorial election, echoing April Quaest technical ties and extending Neto's polling edge amid his Salvador popularity versus Rodrigues' interior stronghold. Trader consensus nonetheless prices Rodrigues slightly ahead at 52%, reflecting incumbency advantages in the longtime PT bastion, historical poll underestimation of the party, and undecided voters (5%). Right-wing endorsements like Eduardo Bolsonaro's bolster Neto, while PT unity rallies sustain Rodrigues; upcoming party conventions and national coattails could force a runoff or create separation in this polarized contest.

The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$13,682
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Bahia Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jerônimo Rodrigues" at 52%, followed by "ACM Neto" at 48%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Bahia Governor Election Winner" has generated $13.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Bahia Governor Election Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Bahia Governor Election Winner" is "Jerônimo Rodrigues" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "ACM Neto" at 48%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Bahia Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.