Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.1% QoQ, exceeding consensus and driven by household consumption and fixed investment, has set a high baseline while highlighting risks of moderation in Q2 amid elevated Selic rates and fading fiscal stimulus. Trader sentiment remains closely balanced around the 0.6–1.4% bands because incoming indicators show resilient labor markets and export potential from commodities offset by higher inflation pressures and restrained domestic demand. Market-implied odds reflect the uncertainty over whether monetary policy drag and normalizing government spending will pull sequential growth toward the lower end of recent ranges or sustain momentum near Q1 levels. Key near-term catalysts include June inflation prints, central bank communications on rate path expectations, and preliminary activity surveys that could shift the balance ahead of the official IBGE release.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено0,3%–0,5% 47%
1,2%–1,4% 47%
≥1,5% 46%
<0,0% 31%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
<0,0%
21%
0,0%–0,2%
22%
0,3%–0,5%
47%
0,6%–0,8%
45%
0,9%–1,1%
39%
1,2%–1,4%
47%
≥1,5%
46%
0,3%–0,5% 47%
1,2%–1,4% 47%
≥1,5% 46%
<0,0% 31%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
<0,0%
$106 Объем
21%
0,0%–0,2%
$70 Объем
22%
0,3%–0,5%
$70 Объем
47%
0,6%–0,8%
$69 Объем
45%
0,9%–1,1%
$69 Объем
39%
1,2%–1,4%
$101 Объем
47%
≥1,5%
$101 Объем
46%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.1% QoQ, exceeding consensus and driven by household consumption and fixed investment, has set a high baseline while highlighting risks of moderation in Q2 amid elevated Selic rates and fading fiscal stimulus. Trader sentiment remains closely balanced around the 0.6–1.4% bands because incoming indicators show resilient labor markets and export potential from commodities offset by higher inflation pressures and restrained domestic demand. Market-implied odds reflect the uncertainty over whether monetary policy drag and normalizing government spending will pull sequential growth toward the lower end of recent ranges or sustain momentum near Q1 levels. Key near-term catalysts include June inflation prints, central bank communications on rate path expectations, and preliminary activity surveys that could shift the balance ahead of the official IBGE release.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Открытие рынка: Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Объем
$587Открытие рынка
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.1% QoQ, exceeding consensus and driven by household consumption and fixed investment, has set a high baseline while highlighting risks of moderation in Q2 amid elevated Selic rates and fading fiscal stimulus. Trader sentiment remains closely balanced around the 0.6–1.4% bands because incoming indicators show resilient labor markets and export potential from commodities offset by higher inflation pressures and restrained domestic demand. Market-implied odds reflect the uncertainty over whether monetary policy drag and normalizing government spending will pull sequential growth toward the lower end of recent ranges or sustain momentum near Q1 levels. Key near-term catalysts include June inflation prints, central bank communications on rate path expectations, and preliminary activity surveys that could shift the balance ahead of the official IBGE release.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Объем
$587Открытие рынка
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.1% QoQ, exceeding consensus and driven by household consumption and fixed investment, has set a high baseline while highlighting risks of moderation in Q2 amid elevated Selic rates and fading fiscal stimulus. Trader sentiment remains closely balanced around the 0.6–1.4% bands because incoming indicators show resilient labor markets and export potential from commodities offset by higher inflation pressures and restrained domestic demand. Market-implied odds reflect the uncertainty over whether monetary policy drag and normalizing government spending will pull sequential growth toward the lower end of recent ranges or sustain momentum near Q1 levels. Key near-term catalysts include June inflation prints, central bank communications on rate path expectations, and preliminary activity surveys that could shift the balance ahead of the official IBGE release.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы