Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP expanded 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, landing squarely in the market's dominant 0.3%-0.5% band after Q1's stronger 1.1% print. Elevated Selic rates have weighed on investment and household consumption, producing the anticipated moderation as the central bank maintains restrictive policy to address inflation running above its 3% target. Agriculture provided the key offset with 2.8% sector growth from strong soybean and coffee harvests, while services rose just 0.2% and industry 0.1%. The outcome aligned closely with economist forecasts of 0.3-0.4% and Focus survey projections for full-year growth near 1.9%, underscoring how monetary tightening and fiscal caution shaped the consensus ahead of the IBGE release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.3%–0.5% 100.0%
<0.0% <1%
0.0%–0.2% <1%
0.6%–0.8% <1%
$65,817 Vol.
$65,817 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<0.0%
No
0.0%–0.2%
No
0.3%–0.5%
Yes
0.6%–0.8%
No
0.9%–1.1%
No
1.2%–1.4%
No
≥1.5%
No
0.3%–0.5% 100.0%
<0.0% <1%
0.0%–0.2% <1%
0.6%–0.8% <1%
$65,817 Vol.
$65,817 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<0.0%
$2,123 Vol.
No
0.0%–0.2%
$4,321 Vol.
No
0.3%–0.5%
$31,149 Vol.
Yes
0.6%–0.8%
$16,894 Vol.
No
0.9%–1.1%
$6,842 Vol.
No
1.2%–1.4%
$3,290 Vol.
No
≥1.5%
$1,198 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's Q2 2026 GDP expanded 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, landing squarely in the market's dominant 0.3%-0.5% band after Q1's stronger 1.1% print. Elevated Selic rates have weighed on investment and household consumption, producing the anticipated moderation as the central bank maintains restrictive policy to address inflation running above its 3% target. Agriculture provided the key offset with 2.8% sector growth from strong soybean and coffee harvests, while services rose just 0.2% and industry 0.1%. The outcome aligned closely with economist forecasts of 0.3-0.4% and Focus survey projections for full-year growth near 1.9%, underscoring how monetary tightening and fiscal caution shaped the consensus ahead of the IBGE release.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$65,817End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's Q2 2026 GDP expanded 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, landing squarely in the market's dominant 0.3%-0.5% band after Q1's stronger 1.1% print. Elevated Selic rates have weighed on investment and household consumption, producing the anticipated moderation as the central bank maintains restrictive policy to address inflation running above its 3% target. Agriculture provided the key offset with 2.8% sector growth from strong soybean and coffee harvests, while services rose just 0.2% and industry 0.1%. The outcome aligned closely with economist forecasts of 0.3-0.4% and Focus survey projections for full-year growth near 1.9%, underscoring how monetary tightening and fiscal caution shaped the consensus ahead of the IBGE release.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$65,817End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP expanded 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, landing squarely in the market's dominant 0.3%-0.5% band after Q1's stronger 1.1% print. Elevated Selic rates have weighed on investment and household consumption, producing the anticipated moderation as the central bank maintains restrictive policy to address inflation running above its 3% target. Agriculture provided the key offset with 2.8% sector growth from strong soybean and coffee harvests, while services rose just 0.2% and industry 0.1%. The outcome aligned closely with economist forecasts of 0.3-0.4% and Focus survey projections for full-year growth near 1.9%, underscoring how monetary tightening and fiscal caution shaped the consensus ahead of the IBGE release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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