Recent Q2 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, below the 4.5% consensus and down from 5.0% in Q1, has anchored trader focus on subdued domestic demand, including weak retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and property sector activity, offset by resilient exports and industrial output tied to AI demand. Goldman Sachs and other forecasters have trimmed 2026 full-year projections to 4.5%, citing Q3 activity shortfalls and Middle East-related cost pressures, while the IMF holds at 4.6%. Expectations for incremental fiscal and monetary stimulus to defend the 4.5-5% official target introduce upside risks, creating tight contestation between the 4.0-4.3% and 4.3-4.6% bands ahead of the October data release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.0-4.3% 36.0%
4.3-4.6% 35%
4.6-4.9% 20%
3.7-4.0% 9.8%
$44,871 Vol.
$44,871 Vol.
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
1%
3.7-4.0%
10%
4.0-4.3%
36%
4.3-4.6%
35%
4.6-4.9%
20%
4.9-5.2%
1%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
<1%
4.0-4.3% 36.0%
4.3-4.6% 35%
4.6-4.9% 20%
3.7-4.0% 9.8%
$44,871 Vol.
$44,871 Vol.
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
$1,557 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$850 Vol.
1%
3.7-4.0%
$2,233 Vol.
10%
4.0-4.3%
$4,845 Vol.
36%
4.3-4.6%
$16,754 Vol.
35%
4.6-4.9%
$11,008 Vol.
20%
4.9-5.2%
$4,205 Vol.
1%
5.2-5.5%
$1,831 Vol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,588 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent Q2 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, below the 4.5% consensus and down from 5.0% in Q1, has anchored trader focus on subdued domestic demand, including weak retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and property sector activity, offset by resilient exports and industrial output tied to AI demand. Goldman Sachs and other forecasters have trimmed 2026 full-year projections to 4.5%, citing Q3 activity shortfalls and Middle East-related cost pressures, while the IMF holds at 4.6%. Expectations for incremental fiscal and monetary stimulus to defend the 4.5-5% official target introduce upside risks, creating tight contestation between the 4.0-4.3% and 4.3-4.6% bands ahead of the October data release.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$44,871End Date
Oct 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent Q2 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, below the 4.5% consensus and down from 5.0% in Q1, has anchored trader focus on subdued domestic demand, including weak retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and property sector activity, offset by resilient exports and industrial output tied to AI demand. Goldman Sachs and other forecasters have trimmed 2026 full-year projections to 4.5%, citing Q3 activity shortfalls and Middle East-related cost pressures, while the IMF holds at 4.6%. Expectations for incremental fiscal and monetary stimulus to defend the 4.5-5% official target introduce upside risks, creating tight contestation between the 4.0-4.3% and 4.3-4.6% bands ahead of the October data release.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$44,871End Date
Oct 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, below the 4.5% consensus and down from 5.0% in Q1, has anchored trader focus on subdued domestic demand, including weak retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and property sector activity, offset by resilient exports and industrial output tied to AI demand. Goldman Sachs and other forecasters have trimmed 2026 full-year projections to 4.5%, citing Q3 activity shortfalls and Middle East-related cost pressures, while the IMF holds at 4.6%. Expectations for incremental fiscal and monetary stimulus to defend the 4.5-5% official target introduce upside risks, creating tight contestation between the 4.0-4.3% and 4.3-4.6% bands ahead of the October data release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions