Recent softening in domestic demand has anchored trader consensus around the 4.3-4.6% band for China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth year-over-year, with that range carrying a 50.5% implied probability. August data showed retail sales rising just 0.4% year-over-year—below expectations—while urban fixed-asset investment contracted 7.2% year-to-date, deepening the slump in property and infrastructure. Industrial production held firmer at 5.2%, supported by export resilience and high-tech manufacturing, but failed to offset the consumption and investment weakness that drove Q2 growth down to 4.3%. Goldman Sachs’ mid-September cut of its full-year forecast to 4.5% and Q3/Q4 estimates to 4.4% reflected these trends and the delayed rollout of additional stimulus. Markets price in incremental policy support sufficient to keep growth near the lower end of Beijing’s 4.5-5.0% annual target, with Q3 figures due in mid-October serving as the next key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.3-4.6% 51%
4.6-4.9% 29%
4.0-4.3% 17.3%
3.7-4.0% <1%
$39,846 Vol.
$39,846 Vol.
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
1%
4.0-4.3%
17%
4.3-4.6%
51%
4.6-4.9%
29%
4.9-5.2%
<1%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
<1%
4.3-4.6% 51%
4.6-4.9% 29%
4.0-4.3% 17.3%
3.7-4.0% <1%
$39,846 Vol.
$39,846 Vol.
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
$1,402 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$694 Vol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$1,874 Vol.
1%
4.0-4.3%
$3,854 Vol.
17%
4.3-4.6%
$14,723 Vol.
51%
4.6-4.9%
$10,083 Vol.
29%
4.9-5.2%
$4,080 Vol.
<1%
5.2-5.5%
$1,705 Vol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,432 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent softening in domestic demand has anchored trader consensus around the 4.3-4.6% band for China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth year-over-year, with that range carrying a 50.5% implied probability. August data showed retail sales rising just 0.4% year-over-year—below expectations—while urban fixed-asset investment contracted 7.2% year-to-date, deepening the slump in property and infrastructure. Industrial production held firmer at 5.2%, supported by export resilience and high-tech manufacturing, but failed to offset the consumption and investment weakness that drove Q2 growth down to 4.3%. Goldman Sachs’ mid-September cut of its full-year forecast to 4.5% and Q3/Q4 estimates to 4.4% reflected these trends and the delayed rollout of additional stimulus. Markets price in incremental policy support sufficient to keep growth near the lower end of Beijing’s 4.5-5.0% annual target, with Q3 figures due in mid-October serving as the next key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$39,846End Date
Oct 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent softening in domestic demand has anchored trader consensus around the 4.3-4.6% band for China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth year-over-year, with that range carrying a 50.5% implied probability. August data showed retail sales rising just 0.4% year-over-year—below expectations—while urban fixed-asset investment contracted 7.2% year-to-date, deepening the slump in property and infrastructure. Industrial production held firmer at 5.2%, supported by export resilience and high-tech manufacturing, but failed to offset the consumption and investment weakness that drove Q2 growth down to 4.3%. Goldman Sachs’ mid-September cut of its full-year forecast to 4.5% and Q3/Q4 estimates to 4.4% reflected these trends and the delayed rollout of additional stimulus. Markets price in incremental policy support sufficient to keep growth near the lower end of Beijing’s 4.5-5.0% annual target, with Q3 figures due in mid-October serving as the next key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$39,846End Date
Oct 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent softening in domestic demand has anchored trader consensus around the 4.3-4.6% band for China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth year-over-year, with that range carrying a 50.5% implied probability. August data showed retail sales rising just 0.4% year-over-year—below expectations—while urban fixed-asset investment contracted 7.2% year-to-date, deepening the slump in property and infrastructure. Industrial production held firmer at 5.2%, supported by export resilience and high-tech manufacturing, but failed to offset the consumption and investment weakness that drove Q2 growth down to 4.3%. Goldman Sachs’ mid-September cut of its full-year forecast to 4.5% and Q3/Q4 estimates to 4.4% reflected these trends and the delayed rollout of additional stimulus. Markets price in incremental policy support sufficient to keep growth near the lower end of Beijing’s 4.5-5.0% annual target, with Q3 figures due in mid-October serving as the next key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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