Trader sentiment in the 2026 U.S. GDP growth market centers on the 2.0–2.5% range as the modal outcome, reflecting consensus forecasts from sources such as Vanguard at 2.3% and the Philadelphia Fed SPF at 2.5%. Primary drivers include a shift toward investment-led expansion via AI-related capital expenditures that offset softer consumer spending amid higher energy prices and cooling labor market conditions, with Q1 2026 GDP printing at a 1.6% annualized pace. Elevated core inflation near 3% has kept monetary policy on hold, while fiscal measures including tax cuts provide modest support. Recent commodity supply shocks from geopolitical tensions introduce downside risks, yet resilient business investment sustains implied probabilities near 2.0–2.5%. Key upcoming catalysts include August labor data and any Fed communications that could refine rate path expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
2.0–2.5% 37%
1.5–2.0% 24.9%
>2.5% 22%
1.0–1.5% 8.9%
$57,903 Vol.
$57,903 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
2%
1.0–1.5%
9%
1.5–2.0%
25%
2.0–2.5%
37%
>2.5%
22%
2.0–2.5% 37%
1.5–2.0% 24.9%
>2.5% 22%
1.0–1.5% 8.9%
$57,903 Vol.
$57,903 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$7,414 Vol.
3%
0.5–1.0%
$17,161 Vol.
2%
1.0–1.5%
$3,814 Vol.
9%
1.5–2.0%
$6,602 Vol.
25%
2.0–2.5%
$7,014 Vol.
37%
>2.5%
$15,898 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment in the 2026 U.S. GDP growth market centers on the 2.0–2.5% range as the modal outcome, reflecting consensus forecasts from sources such as Vanguard at 2.3% and the Philadelphia Fed SPF at 2.5%. Primary drivers include a shift toward investment-led expansion via AI-related capital expenditures that offset softer consumer spending amid higher energy prices and cooling labor market conditions, with Q1 2026 GDP printing at a 1.6% annualized pace. Elevated core inflation near 3% has kept monetary policy on hold, while fiscal measures including tax cuts provide modest support. Recent commodity supply shocks from geopolitical tensions introduce downside risks, yet resilient business investment sustains implied probabilities near 2.0–2.5%. Key upcoming catalysts include August labor data and any Fed communications that could refine rate path expectations.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$57,903End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment in the 2026 U.S. GDP growth market centers on the 2.0–2.5% range as the modal outcome, reflecting consensus forecasts from sources such as Vanguard at 2.3% and the Philadelphia Fed SPF at 2.5%. Primary drivers include a shift toward investment-led expansion via AI-related capital expenditures that offset softer consumer spending amid higher energy prices and cooling labor market conditions, with Q1 2026 GDP printing at a 1.6% annualized pace. Elevated core inflation near 3% has kept monetary policy on hold, while fiscal measures including tax cuts provide modest support. Recent commodity supply shocks from geopolitical tensions introduce downside risks, yet resilient business investment sustains implied probabilities near 2.0–2.5%. Key upcoming catalysts include August labor data and any Fed communications that could refine rate path expectations.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$57,903End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment in the 2026 U.S. GDP growth market centers on the 2.0–2.5% range as the modal outcome, reflecting consensus forecasts from sources such as Vanguard at 2.3% and the Philadelphia Fed SPF at 2.5%. Primary drivers include a shift toward investment-led expansion via AI-related capital expenditures that offset softer consumer spending amid higher energy prices and cooling labor market conditions, with Q1 2026 GDP printing at a 1.6% annualized pace. Elevated core inflation near 3% has kept monetary policy on hold, while fiscal measures including tax cuts provide modest support. Recent commodity supply shocks from geopolitical tensions introduce downside risks, yet resilient business investment sustains implied probabilities near 2.0–2.5%. Key upcoming catalysts include August labor data and any Fed communications that could refine rate path expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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