Trader sentiment on Polymarket prices a 45% implied probability for 2026 U.S. annual GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting the Q1 rebound to 2.0% annualized—surpassing Q4 2025's 0.5% slowdown despite missing expectations—bolstered by Atlanta Fed GDPNow's Q2 estimate of 3.7% as of early May. Elevated 22.6% odds for sub-0.5% growth capture tail risks from April's tepid 115,000 nonfarm payrolls, steady 4.3% unemployment, and persistent fiscal deficits projected at 5.8% of GDP. Professional forecasts cluster at 2.2–2.5%, with closely contested bands signaling uncertainty over labor trends and policy; upcoming Q1 GDP revisions and June FOMC projections loom as catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
1.5–2.0% 16.9%
<0.5% 16.3%
0.5–1.0% 12.4%
1.0–1.5% 12.2%
$27,904 Vol.
$27,904 Vol.
<0.5%
16%
0.5–1.0%
12%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1.5–2.0%
17%
2.0–2.5%
13%
>2.5%
36%
1.5–2.0% 16.9%
<0.5% 16.3%
0.5–1.0% 12.4%
1.0–1.5% 12.2%
$27,904 Vol.
$27,904 Vol.
<0.5%
16%
0.5–1.0%
12%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1.5–2.0%
17%
2.0–2.5%
13%
>2.5%
36%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket prices a 45% implied probability for 2026 U.S. annual GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting the Q1 rebound to 2.0% annualized—surpassing Q4 2025's 0.5% slowdown despite missing expectations—bolstered by Atlanta Fed GDPNow's Q2 estimate of 3.7% as of early May. Elevated 22.6% odds for sub-0.5% growth capture tail risks from April's tepid 115,000 nonfarm payrolls, steady 4.3% unemployment, and persistent fiscal deficits projected at 5.8% of GDP. Professional forecasts cluster at 2.2–2.5%, with closely contested bands signaling uncertainty over labor trends and policy; upcoming Q1 GDP revisions and June FOMC projections loom as catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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