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Economy·Economic Policy

GDP growth in 2026

icon for GDP growth in 2026
Economy·Economic Policy

GDP growth in 2026

Jul 30

Jan 29, 2027

Jul 30

Jan 29, 2027

>2.5% 42%

<0.5% 26.8%

1.5–2.0% 16.9%

1.0–1.5% 12.2%

Polymarket

$27,904 Vol.

>2.5% 42%

<0.5% 26.8%

1.5–2.0% 16.9%

1.0–1.5% 12.2%

Polymarket

$27,904 Vol.

<0.5%

$3,879 Vol.

27%

0.5–1.0%

$15,268 Vol.

12%

1.0–1.5%

$1,535 Vol.

12%

1.5–2.0%

$1,472 Vol.

17%

2.0–2.5%

$1,690 Vol.

12%

>2.5%

$4,061 Vol.

42%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a 47% implied probability for US GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting solid Q1 real GDP expansion at 2.0% annualized—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5%—bolstered by Atlanta Fed's Q2 GDPNow nowcast of 3.7% as of early May. However, April CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year, the hottest since May 2023 amid energy shocks from the Iran conflict, alongside modest April nonfarm payroll gains of 115,000 and steady 4.3% unemployment, has elevated tail risks with 22% odds on sub-0.5% growth, signaling stagflation concerns and potential Fed policy tightening. Mid-range outcomes hover at 12-17%, aligning with consensus forecasts around 2.0-2.2%; watch June FOMC projections and Q2 data for shifts.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$27,904
End Date
Jan 29, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a 47% implied probability for US GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting solid Q1 real GDP expansion at 2.0% annualized—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5%—bolstered by Atlanta Fed's Q2 GDPNow nowcast of 3.7% as of early May. However, April CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year, the hottest since May 2023 amid energy shocks from the Iran conflict, alongside modest April nonfarm payroll gains of 115,000 and steady 4.3% unemployment, has elevated tail risks with 22% odds on sub-0.5% growth, signaling stagflation concerns and potential Fed policy tightening. Mid-range outcomes hover at 12-17%, aligning with consensus forecasts around 2.0-2.2%; watch June FOMC projections and Q2 data for shifts.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$27,904
End Date
Jan 29, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"GDP growth in 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is ">2.5%" at 42%, followed by "<0.5%" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "GDP growth in 2026" has generated $27.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "GDP growth in 2026," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "GDP growth in 2026" is ">2.5%" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<0.5%" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "GDP growth in 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.