Recent U.S. economic releases have kept trader-implied probabilities tightly clustered across the 1.5–3.0 percent GDP-growth bands for Q2 2026. The Q1 advance estimate printed at 2.0 percent annualized—below the 2.3 percent consensus—reflecting a rebound in business fixed investment, particularly AI-related equipment, that was offset by softer consumer spending and a wider trade deficit. Elevated April CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year, driven by energy-price surges tied to Middle East tensions, has tempered expectations for near-term Fed easing and weighed on household demand. Although the Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast sits near 3.7 percent, cooling labor-market signals and tariff pass-through concerns continue to cap upside bets. Key near-term releases—the May 28 Q1 second estimate, retail sales, and ISM surveys—remain the primary swing factors that could reprice the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS GDP growth in Q2 2026?
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
1.5–2.0% 30%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 22%
3.0–3.5% 16%
NEW
NEW
Jul 30, 2026
<1.0%
8%
1.0–1.5%
9%
1.5–2.0%
20%
2.0–2.5%
26%
2.5–3.0%
22%
3.0–3.5%
16%
≥3.5%
7%
1.5–2.0% 30%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 22%
3.0–3.5% 16%
NEW
NEW
Jul 30, 2026
<1.0%
$593 Vol.
8%
1.0–1.5%
$353 Vol.
9%
1.5–2.0%
$293 Vol.
20%
2.0–2.5%
$526 Vol.
26%
2.5–3.0%
$410 Vol.
22%
3.0–3.5%
$661 Vol.
16%
≥3.5%
$509 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent U.S. economic releases have kept trader-implied probabilities tightly clustered across the 1.5–3.0 percent GDP-growth bands for Q2 2026. The Q1 advance estimate printed at 2.0 percent annualized—below the 2.3 percent consensus—reflecting a rebound in business fixed investment, particularly AI-related equipment, that was offset by softer consumer spending and a wider trade deficit. Elevated April CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year, driven by energy-price surges tied to Middle East tensions, has tempered expectations for near-term Fed easing and weighed on household demand. Although the Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast sits near 3.7 percent, cooling labor-market signals and tariff pass-through concerns continue to cap upside bets. Key near-term releases—the May 28 Q1 second estimate, retail sales, and ISM surveys—remain the primary swing factors that could reprice the distribution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Volume
$3,345End Date
Jul 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent U.S. economic releases have kept trader-implied probabilities tightly clustered across the 1.5–3.0 percent GDP-growth bands for Q2 2026. The Q1 advance estimate printed at 2.0 percent annualized—below the 2.3 percent consensus—reflecting a rebound in business fixed investment, particularly AI-related equipment, that was offset by softer consumer spending and a wider trade deficit. Elevated April CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year, driven by energy-price surges tied to Middle East tensions, has tempered expectations for near-term Fed easing and weighed on household demand. Although the Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast sits near 3.7 percent, cooling labor-market signals and tariff pass-through concerns continue to cap upside bets. Key near-term releases—the May 28 Q1 second estimate, retail sales, and ISM surveys—remain the primary swing factors that could reprice the distribution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$3,345End Date
Jul 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. economic releases have kept trader-implied probabilities tightly clustered across the 1.5–3.0 percent GDP-growth bands for Q2 2026. The Q1 advance estimate printed at 2.0 percent annualized—below the 2.3 percent consensus—reflecting a rebound in business fixed investment, particularly AI-related equipment, that was offset by softer consumer spending and a wider trade deficit. Elevated April CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year, driven by energy-price surges tied to Middle East tensions, has tempered expectations for near-term Fed easing and weighed on household demand. Although the Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast sits near 3.7 percent, cooling labor-market signals and tariff pass-through concerns continue to cap upside bets. Key near-term releases—the May 28 Q1 second estimate, retail sales, and ISM surveys—remain the primary swing factors that could reprice the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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