Robust U.S. economic expansion through mid-2026 underpins the 96% market-implied probability against negative annual GDP growth. First- and second-quarter real GDP rose at annualized rates of 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively, while consensus forecasts from the CBO, IMF, and private economists project full-year growth of 2.0–2.3%, driven by business investment in AI infrastructure, resilient consumer spending, and moderating inflation near 3.4%. With more than half the year complete and no contractionary signals in labor market or output data, traders assign minimal odds to a full-year decline. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift probabilities include an abrupt H2 reversal from escalated tariffs, geopolitical shocks, or a sharper-than-expected labor market deterioration that triggers broad spending cutbacks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
4% chance
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
4% chance
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust U.S. economic expansion through mid-2026 underpins the 96% market-implied probability against negative annual GDP growth. First- and second-quarter real GDP rose at annualized rates of 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively, while consensus forecasts from the CBO, IMF, and private economists project full-year growth of 2.0–2.3%, driven by business investment in AI infrastructure, resilient consumer spending, and moderating inflation near 3.4%. With more than half the year complete and no contractionary signals in labor market or output data, traders assign minimal odds to a full-year decline. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift probabilities include an abrupt H2 reversal from escalated tariffs, geopolitical shocks, or a sharper-than-expected labor market deterioration that triggers broad spending cutbacks.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$32,234End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust U.S. economic expansion through mid-2026 underpins the 96% market-implied probability against negative annual GDP growth. First- and second-quarter real GDP rose at annualized rates of 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively, while consensus forecasts from the CBO, IMF, and private economists project full-year growth of 2.0–2.3%, driven by business investment in AI infrastructure, resilient consumer spending, and moderating inflation near 3.4%. With more than half the year complete and no contractionary signals in labor market or output data, traders assign minimal odds to a full-year decline. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift probabilities include an abrupt H2 reversal from escalated tariffs, geopolitical shocks, or a sharper-than-expected labor market deterioration that triggers broad spending cutbacks.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$32,234End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust U.S. economic expansion through mid-2026 underpins the 96% market-implied probability against negative annual GDP growth. First- and second-quarter real GDP rose at annualized rates of 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively, while consensus forecasts from the CBO, IMF, and private economists project full-year growth of 2.0–2.3%, driven by business investment in AI infrastructure, resilient consumer spending, and moderating inflation near 3.4%. With more than half the year complete and no contractionary signals in labor market or output data, traders assign minimal odds to a full-year decline. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift probabilities include an abrupt H2 reversal from escalated tariffs, geopolitical shocks, or a sharper-than-expected labor market deterioration that triggers broad spending cutbacks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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