Polymarket traders price a 96% implied probability of no negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, reflecting strong consensus on sustained expansion amid resilient economic fundamentals. The April 30 advance estimate revealed Q1 2026 real GDP growth at a 2.0% annualized rate, rebounding sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5% and propelled by robust government spending, business investment, and AI-driven capital outlays despite softer consumer spending. Full-year forecasts cluster around 2.0-2.5% from institutions like Deloitte and Goldman Sachs, bolstered by April's 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains and stable unemployment near 4%. Tail risks include escalating geopolitical tensions, reaccelerating inflation as hinted in recent data, or a stock market correction amid elevated valuations, though these remain low-probability scenarios per trader sentiment. Key watchpoints: Q2 GDP release in late July and June FOMC projections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
$25,711 Vol.
$25,711 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
$25,711 Vol.
$25,711 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders price a 96% implied probability of no negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, reflecting strong consensus on sustained expansion amid resilient economic fundamentals. The April 30 advance estimate revealed Q1 2026 real GDP growth at a 2.0% annualized rate, rebounding sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5% and propelled by robust government spending, business investment, and AI-driven capital outlays despite softer consumer spending. Full-year forecasts cluster around 2.0-2.5% from institutions like Deloitte and Goldman Sachs, bolstered by April's 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains and stable unemployment near 4%. Tail risks include escalating geopolitical tensions, reaccelerating inflation as hinted in recent data, or a stock market correction amid elevated valuations, though these remain low-probability scenarios per trader sentiment. Key watchpoints: Q2 GDP release in late July and June FOMC projections.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$25,711End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders price a 96% implied probability of no negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, reflecting strong consensus on sustained expansion amid resilient economic fundamentals. The April 30 advance estimate revealed Q1 2026 real GDP growth at a 2.0% annualized rate, rebounding sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5% and propelled by robust government spending, business investment, and AI-driven capital outlays despite softer consumer spending. Full-year forecasts cluster around 2.0-2.5% from institutions like Deloitte and Goldman Sachs, bolstered by April's 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains and stable unemployment near 4%. Tail risks include escalating geopolitical tensions, reaccelerating inflation as hinted in recent data, or a stock market correction amid elevated valuations, though these remain low-probability scenarios per trader sentiment. Key watchpoints: Q2 GDP release in late July and June FOMC projections.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$25,711End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 96% implied probability of no negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, reflecting strong consensus on sustained expansion amid resilient economic fundamentals. The April 30 advance estimate revealed Q1 2026 real GDP growth at a 2.0% annualized rate, rebounding sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5% and propelled by robust government spending, business investment, and AI-driven capital outlays despite softer consumer spending. Full-year forecasts cluster around 2.0-2.5% from institutions like Deloitte and Goldman Sachs, bolstered by April's 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains and stable unemployment near 4%. Tail risks include escalating geopolitical tensions, reaccelerating inflation as hinted in recent data, or a stock market correction amid elevated valuations, though these remain low-probability scenarios per trader sentiment. Key watchpoints: Q2 GDP release in late July and June FOMC projections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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