Strong consensus around 2.1–2.3% real GDP growth for 2026, per the latest FOMC median projection and private forecasts from U.S. Bank, TD Economics, and SIFMA, underpins the 98% market-implied odds against negative annual growth. Resilient consumer spending, robust nonresidential investment driven by AI-related capital expenditures, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3% have sustained expansion despite elevated policy rates and softer Q2 2026 growth at 1.5% annualized. Q3 nowcasts show firmer momentum above 2.5%. Tail risks that could still trigger contraction include a sharp AI investment correction, geopolitical escalation raising energy prices, or a sizable equity market decline eroding household wealth effects.