Republican control of the Senate with 53 seats underpins trader consensus for 54 yes votes on Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Federal Reserve chair, reflecting unified GOP support plus Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman's public commitment to vote yes. Recent momentum includes the Senate Banking Committee's 13-11 approval in late April, Warsh's 51-45 confirmation to the Fed Board of Governors on May 12, and a 49-44 cloture vote the same day where Fetterman and Delaware's Chris Coons crossed party lines. With Jerome Powell's term ending May 15, a floor vote is imminent, minimizing delay risks. Challenges to 54 would require a GOP defection or Fetterman's reversal, improbable amid procedural advances and low dissent signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated54 97.0%
55 5.7%
51 2.3%
53 2.2%
$179,823 Vol.
$179,823 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
≤49
<1%
50
<1%
51
2%
52
<1%
53
2%
54
97%
55
6%
56
<1%
57
<1%
58
<1%
59
<1%
60+
2%
No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawn
<1%
54 97.0%
55 5.7%
51 2.3%
53 2.2%
$179,823 Vol.
$179,823 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
≤49
$35,771 Vol.
<1%
50
$10,246 Vol.
<1%
51
$14,010 Vol.
2%
52
$9,836 Vol.
<1%
53
$1,617 Vol.
2%
54
$2,107 Vol.
97%
55
$843 Vol.
6%
56
$15,549 Vol.
<1%
57
$13,784 Vol.
<1%
58
$12,619 Vol.
<1%
59
$14,777 Vol.
<1%
60+
$45,632 Vol.
2%
No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawn
$9,597 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Republican control of the Senate with 53 seats underpins trader consensus for 54 yes votes on Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Federal Reserve chair, reflecting unified GOP support plus Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman's public commitment to vote yes. Recent momentum includes the Senate Banking Committee's 13-11 approval in late April, Warsh's 51-45 confirmation to the Fed Board of Governors on May 12, and a 49-44 cloture vote the same day where Fetterman and Delaware's Chris Coons crossed party lines. With Jerome Powell's term ending May 15, a floor vote is imminent, minimizing delay risks. Challenges to 54 would require a GOP defection or Fetterman's reversal, improbable amid procedural advances and low dissent signals.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volume
$179,823End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Republican control of the Senate with 53 seats underpins trader consensus for 54 yes votes on Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Federal Reserve chair, reflecting unified GOP support plus Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman's public commitment to vote yes. Recent momentum includes the Senate Banking Committee's 13-11 approval in late April, Warsh's 51-45 confirmation to the Fed Board of Governors on May 12, and a 49-44 cloture vote the same day where Fetterman and Delaware's Chris Coons crossed party lines. With Jerome Powell's term ending May 15, a floor vote is imminent, minimizing delay risks. Challenges to 54 would require a GOP defection or Fetterman's reversal, improbable amid procedural advances and low dissent signals.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$179,823End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican control of the Senate with 53 seats underpins trader consensus for 54 yes votes on Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Federal Reserve chair, reflecting unified GOP support plus Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman's public commitment to vote yes. Recent momentum includes the Senate Banking Committee's 13-11 approval in late April, Warsh's 51-45 confirmation to the Fed Board of Governors on May 12, and a 49-44 cloture vote the same day where Fetterman and Delaware's Chris Coons crossed party lines. With Jerome Powell's term ending May 15, a floor vote is imminent, minimizing delay risks. Challenges to 54 would require a GOP defection or Fetterman's reversal, improbable amid procedural advances and low dissent signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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