President Trump's official schedule for his state visit to China, confirmed by the White House and China's foreign ministry, lists May 15 as the departure date from Beijing following executive time, a friendship photo opportunity, bilateral tea, and lunch with President Xi Jinping. Trader consensus at 99.9% on May 15 reflects this precise itinerary amid ongoing high-stakes summit talks on trade, Taiwan tensions, and financial coordination, with no reported delays from the past 48 hours of meetings. The trip, delayed from April due to Middle East conflicts, has proceeded on plan since arrival on May 13. Scenarios that could shift odds include unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs requiring extended negotiations, weather disruptions at Beijing Capital International Airport, or personal health issues, though these remain low-probability given the fixed timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhen will Trump leave China?
When will Trump leave China?
May 15 99.8%
May 16 <1%
May 17 <1%
May 18 <1%
$209,919 Vol.
$209,919 Vol.
May 20, 2026
May 15
100%
May 16
<1%
May 17
<1%
May 18
<1%
After May 18
<1%
May 15 99.8%
May 16 <1%
May 17 <1%
May 18 <1%
$209,919 Vol.
$209,919 Vol.
May 20, 2026
May 15
$85,743 Vol.
100%
May 16
$35,203 Vol.
<1%
May 17
$11,104 Vol.
<1%
May 18
$3,024 Vol.
<1%
After May 18
$5,847 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time.
A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.
If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.
If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's official schedule for his state visit to China, confirmed by the White House and China's foreign ministry, lists May 15 as the departure date from Beijing following executive time, a friendship photo opportunity, bilateral tea, and lunch with President Xi Jinping. Trader consensus at 99.9% on May 15 reflects this precise itinerary amid ongoing high-stakes summit talks on trade, Taiwan tensions, and financial coordination, with no reported delays from the past 48 hours of meetings. The trip, delayed from April due to Middle East conflicts, has proceeded on plan since arrival on May 13. Scenarios that could shift odds include unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs requiring extended negotiations, weather disruptions at Beijing Capital International Airport, or personal health issues, though these remain low-probability given the fixed timeline.
This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time.
A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.
If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.
If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.
If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.
If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volume
$209,919End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time.
A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.
If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.
If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's official schedule for his state visit to China, confirmed by the White House and China's foreign ministry, lists May 15 as the departure date from Beijing following executive time, a friendship photo opportunity, bilateral tea, and lunch with President Xi Jinping. Trader consensus at 99.9% on May 15 reflects this precise itinerary amid ongoing high-stakes summit talks on trade, Taiwan tensions, and financial coordination, with no reported delays from the past 48 hours of meetings. The trip, delayed from April due to Middle East conflicts, has proceeded on plan since arrival on May 13. Scenarios that could shift odds include unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs requiring extended negotiations, weather disruptions at Beijing Capital International Airport, or personal health issues, though these remain low-probability given the fixed timeline.
This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time.
A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.
If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.
If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.
If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.
If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$209,919End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...President Trump's official schedule for his state visit to China, confirmed by the White House and China's foreign ministry, lists May 15 as the departure date from Beijing following executive time, a friendship photo opportunity, bilateral tea, and lunch with President Xi Jinping. Trader consensus at 99.9% on May 15 reflects this precise itinerary amid ongoing high-stakes summit talks on trade, Taiwan tensions, and financial coordination, with no reported delays from the past 48 hours of meetings. The trip, delayed from April due to Middle East conflicts, has proceeded on plan since arrival on May 13. Scenarios that could shift odds include unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs requiring extended negotiations, weather disruptions at Beijing Capital International Airport, or personal health issues, though these remain low-probability given the fixed timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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