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icon for Israel x Syria security agreement by...?
Geopolitics·Syria

Israel x Syria security agreement by...?

icon for Israel x Syria security agreement by...?
Geopolitics·Syria

Israel x Syria security agreement by...?

$3,939,605 Vol.

Jan 31, 2026
Polymarket

$3,939,605 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30

$3,356,959 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states. Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states. Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states. Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states. Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states. Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states. Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states. Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.U.S.-mediated talks between Israel and Syria have continued since resuming in January 2026, centered on reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement that established a U.N.-monitored buffer zone. Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani stated on May 13 that Damascus seeks a comprehensive security pact requiring Israeli withdrawal from territory seized after the fall of the prior regime, while Israeli actions including settlement expansion near the Golan Heights have introduced new strains. Negotiations have incorporated confidence-building steps such as intelligence coordination and demilitarized zone proposals, yet persistent disagreements over border security and sovereignty remain the primary obstacles. No final accord has been reached, leaving outcomes dependent on further diplomatic progress under U.S. facilitation before any specified deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states.

Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify.

Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count.

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.
Volume
$3,939,605
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 5:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states. Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states. Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states. Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states. Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states. Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states. Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states. Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states. Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.U.S.-mediated talks between Israel and Syria have continued since resuming in January 2026, centered on reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement that established a U.N.-monitored buffer zone. Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani stated on May 13 that Damascus seeks a comprehensive security pact requiring Israeli withdrawal from territory seized after the fall of the prior regime, while Israeli actions including settlement expansion near the Golan Heights have introduced new strains. Negotiations have incorporated confidence-building steps such as intelligence coordination and demilitarized zone proposals, yet persistent disagreements over border security and sovereignty remain the primary obstacles. No final accord has been reached, leaving outcomes dependent on further diplomatic progress under U.S. facilitation before any specified deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states.

Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify.

Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count.

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.
Volume
$3,939,605
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 5:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states. Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Israel x Syria security agreement by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30" at 8%, followed by "September 30" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Israel x Syria security agreement by...?" has generated $3.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 26, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Israel x Syria security agreement by...?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Israel x Syria security agreement by...?" is "June 30" at just 8%, with "September 30" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Israel x Syria security agreement by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.