Direct Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington, now in their third round this year, focus on ceasefire extension and phased Hezbollah disarmament amid ongoing border clashes, with the US describing Thursday's session as positive while negotiations continue Friday. A US-brokered ten-day cessation of hostilities began April 16 and was extended three weeks, but mutual accusations of violations persist, including Israeli strikes on Litani River bridges and Hezbollah drone attacks. Hezbollah vocally opposes direct diplomacy, refusing participation and maintaining operational continuity north of the Litani, complicating paths to a permanent peace agreement that would require broader Lebanese consensus, Iranian influence, and verified disarmament under UNIFIL oversight. Escalations or diplomatic breakthroughs in coming days could shift trader assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
$163,615 Vol.
May 31, 2026
May 31
3%
$163,615 Vol.
May 31
$94,861 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Direct Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington, now in their third round this year, focus on ceasefire extension and phased Hezbollah disarmament amid ongoing border clashes, with the US describing Thursday's session as positive while negotiations continue Friday. A US-brokered ten-day cessation of hostilities began April 16 and was extended three weeks, but mutual accusations of violations persist, including Israeli strikes on Litani River bridges and Hezbollah drone attacks. Hezbollah vocally opposes direct diplomacy, refusing participation and maintaining operational continuity north of the Litani, complicating paths to a permanent peace agreement that would require broader Lebanese consensus, Iranian influence, and verified disarmament under UNIFIL oversight. Escalations or diplomatic breakthroughs in coming days could shift trader assessments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ET
Volume
$163,615End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Direct Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington, now in their third round this year, focus on ceasefire extension and phased Hezbollah disarmament amid ongoing border clashes, with the US describing Thursday's session as positive while negotiations continue Friday. A US-brokered ten-day cessation of hostilities began April 16 and was extended three weeks, but mutual accusations of violations persist, including Israeli strikes on Litani River bridges and Hezbollah drone attacks. Hezbollah vocally opposes direct diplomacy, refusing participation and maintaining operational continuity north of the Litani, complicating paths to a permanent peace agreement that would require broader Lebanese consensus, Iranian influence, and verified disarmament under UNIFIL oversight. Escalations or diplomatic breakthroughs in coming days could shift trader assessments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$163,615End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Direct Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington, now in their third round this year, focus on ceasefire extension and phased Hezbollah disarmament amid ongoing border clashes, with the US describing Thursday's session as positive while negotiations continue Friday. A US-brokered ten-day cessation of hostilities began April 16 and was extended three weeks, but mutual accusations of violations persist, including Israeli strikes on Litani River bridges and Hezbollah drone attacks. Hezbollah vocally opposes direct diplomacy, refusing participation and maintaining operational continuity north of the Litani, complicating paths to a permanent peace agreement that would require broader Lebanese consensus, Iranian influence, and verified disarmament under UNIFIL oversight. Escalations or diplomatic breakthroughs in coming days could shift trader assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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