This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.Iranian airspace remains severely restricted, with the Tehran FIR (OIIX) largely closed to civilian overflights since U.S. and Israeli strikes began on February 28, 2026, triggering emergency NOTAMs amid the ongoing conflict. Partial reopening of eastern sectors above FL285 occurred in late April following a fragile ceasefire, but western areas stay off-limits due to military risks, as confirmed by aviation authorities and U.S. embassy alerts. Trader sentiment reflects this tense status quo, driven by recent Iranian deployment of 10,000 FPV drones reported May 11 and Netanyahu's covert UAE visit on May 13 signaling Gulf-Israel defense coordination against Tehran. No major closures in the past 30 days, but escalation risks from port blockades, failed peace talks, or retaliatory strikes loom ahead of any full normalization.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian airspace remains severely restricted, with the Tehran FIR (OIIX) largely closed to civilian overflights since U.S. and Israeli strikes began on February 28, 2026, triggering emergency NOTAMs amid the ongoing conflict. Partial reopening of eastern sectors above FL285 occurred in late April following a fragile ceasefire, but western areas stay off-limits due to military risks, as confirmed by aviation authorities and U.S. embassy alerts. Trader sentiment reflects this tense status quo, driven by recent Iranian deployment of 10,000 FPV drones reported May 11 and Netanyahu's covert UAE visit on May 13 signaling Gulf-Israel defense coordination against Tehran. No major closures in the past 30 days, but escalation risks from port blockades, failed peace talks, or retaliatory strikes loom ahead of any full normalization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
May 11 2026
Iranian aviation authorities issue new notices on airspace restrictions amid security alerts
May 31 jumps to 41%9%
New official notices about airspace restrictions amid heightened security alerts increased market expectations of a possible major closure.
May 10 2026
Airlines continue cancellations and rerouting amid ongoing regional tensions
May 31 jumps to 38%8%
Ongoing airline disruptions and cautious official statements kept the market's probability moderate, reflecting uncertainty about a potential major closure.
May 8 2026
Iran resumes limited airspace restrictions after missile strikes on UAE
May 31 drops to 27%7%
Following missile strikes, Iran reinstated some airspace restrictions, but these were limited and did not constitute a major closure, causing mixed market reactions.
May 8 2026
No official Iranian government or civil aviation announcements of a major airspace closure;
May 8 dips to 2%1%
commercial flights continued operating normally or with limited restrictions not meeting the "major closure" criteria; market
May 7 2026
Reuters notes that several airlines (Finnair, British Airways, Pegasus, etc.) are cancelling or rerouting flights to avoid Iranian airspace, but there is no official Iranian
May 7 drops to 0%7%
Reuters notes that several airlines (Finnair, British Airways, Pegasus, etc.) are cancelling or rerouting flights to avoid Iranian airspace, but there is no official Iranian government order closing the airspace, leading traders to push the Yes
May 7 2026
Minor temporary uptick to 7% possibly due to short-term rumors or geopolitical concerns, but no verifiable news of a major closure emerged;
May 8 rises to 7%4%
market quickly corrected downward
May 7 2026
Partial airspace closures near Strait of Hormuz reported, no broad closure
May 31 jumps to 40%13%
Reports of partial closures for military drills near the Strait of Hormuz increased concerns about escalation, pushing
May 6 2026
Market reassesses after Iranian authorities clarify limited airspace restrictions
May 31 drops to 27%11%
Clarifications from Iranian aviation authorities indicated that closures were targeted and temporary, not a full major closure, leading to a market correction downward.
May 5 2026
Benzinga reports that after renewed Strait‑of‑Hormuz attacks, Polymarket odds that Iran will enact a “major closure” jump to 52 % from 42 % the day before, prompting traders to
May 7 jumps to 7%6%
Benzinga reports that after renewed Strait‑of‑Hormuz attacks, Polymarket odds that Iran will enact a “major closure” jump to 52 % from 42 % the day before, prompting traders to bid up the Yes
May 5 2026
Airlines including Air India and IndiGo reroute flights due to Iran airspace closure
May 31 plunges to 38%24%
Major Indian carriers announced rerouting and cancellations following Iran's airspace closure announcements, confirming operational disruptions but with some uncertainty about the closure's scope, causing
May 4 2026
Iran issues a temporary restriction on civilian flights within the Tehran FIR, allowing only pre‑authorized international traffic;
May 15 dips to 4%4%
the notice is brief and does not affect the majority of commercial airports
May 4 2026
Market briefly peaked at 27%–39% on speculation or rumors possibly linked to regional tensions or military drills, but no official Iranian airspace closure announcements
May 8 plunges to 10%17%
Market briefly peaked at 27%–39% on speculation or rumors possibly linked to regional tensions or military drills, but no official Iranian airspace closure announcements materialized; absence of qualifying closure news caused
May 4 2026
Iran announced the reopening of its western airspace region (covering Shiraz and Isfahan) after a 12‑hour suspension, but kept the eastern sector closed, keeping two major
May 31 surges to 59%18%
Iran announced the reopening of its western airspace region (covering Shiraz and Isfahan) after a 12‑hour suspension, but kept the eastern sector closed, keeping two major airports (IKA, MHD) grounded
May 4 2026
Following the partial reopening, the Iranian civil aviation ministry clarified that the suspension of arrivals/departures at IKA and THR would continue until further notice,
May 31 dips to 55%4%
Following the partial reopening, the Iranian civil aviation ministry clarified that the suspension of arrivals/departures at IKA and THR would continue until further notice, pushing the market back up
May 4 2026
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on UAE, prompting UAE airspace restrictions
May 31 surges to 62%22%
Iran's missile and drone attacks on the UAE led to renewed UAE airspace restrictions and increased regional tensions, significantly raising the probability of Iran imposing a major airspace closure.
May 2 2026
Reports emerge of increased military activity near Iranian airspace
May 31 drops to 31%11%
News of military drills and missile tests near Iranian airspace led to partial airspace restrictions but no major closure, causing a market dip as the risk of a full closure appeared lower.
Iran's Civil Aviation Authority announced temporary restrictions on airspace access affecting commercial flights, signaling heightened security concerns and raising market expectations of a possible broader closure.
May 1 2026
No credible reports or official notices from Iranian aviation authorities indicated any planned or ongoing major closure of Iranian airspace by May 8, leading to initial moderate
May 8 dips to 21%3%
No credible reports or official notices from Iranian aviation authorities indicated any planned or ongoing major closure of Iranian airspace by May 8, leading to initial moderate market optimism (around 24%) that a closure might occur
Feb 28 2026
U.S. and Israeli strikes prompt Iran (and Iraq) to close civilian airspace, but the closure is framed as an immediate, conflict‑driven response rather than a sustained, broad
May 15 drops to 14%6%
U.S. and Israeli strikes prompt Iran (and Iraq) to close civilian airspace, but the closure is framed as an immediate, conflict‑driven response rather than a sustained, broad suspension
Feb 28 2026
Middle East airspace shuts after US‑Israel strike on Iran;
May 15 drops to 27%5%
Iran closes its airspace to civilian traffic, prompting fears of a broad closure that pushed the market up
Feb 28 2026
Air India, IndiGo and SpiceJet issue advisories about flight disruptions caused by Iran’s short‑term airspace closure, underscoring that the impact was limited to specific routes
May 15 dips to 11%3%
Air India, IndiGo and SpiceJet issue advisories about flight disruptions caused by Iran’s short‑term airspace closure, underscoring that the impact was limited to specific routes and not a nationwide suspension
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.Iranian airspace remains severely restricted, with the Tehran FIR (OIIX) largely closed to civilian overflights since U.S. and Israeli strikes began on February 28, 2026, triggering emergency NOTAMs amid the ongoing conflict. Partial reopening of eastern sectors above FL285 occurred in late April following a fragile ceasefire, but western areas stay off-limits due to military risks, as confirmed by aviation authorities and U.S. embassy alerts. Trader sentiment reflects this tense status quo, driven by recent Iranian deployment of 10,000 FPV drones reported May 11 and Netanyahu's covert UAE visit on May 13 signaling Gulf-Israel defense coordination against Tehran. No major closures in the past 30 days, but escalation risks from port blockades, failed peace talks, or retaliatory strikes loom ahead of any full normalization.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian airspace remains severely restricted, with the Tehran FIR (OIIX) largely closed to civilian overflights since U.S. and Israeli strikes began on February 28, 2026, triggering emergency NOTAMs amid the ongoing conflict. Partial reopening of eastern sectors above FL285 occurred in late April following a fragile ceasefire, but western areas stay off-limits due to military risks, as confirmed by aviation authorities and U.S. embassy alerts. Trader sentiment reflects this tense status quo, driven by recent Iranian deployment of 10,000 FPV drones reported May 11 and Netanyahu's covert UAE visit on May 13 signaling Gulf-Israel defense coordination against Tehran. No major closures in the past 30 days, but escalation risks from port blockades, failed peace talks, or retaliatory strikes loom ahead of any full normalization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
May 11 2026
Iranian aviation authorities issue new notices on airspace restrictions amid security alerts
May 31 jumps to 41%9%
New official notices about airspace restrictions amid heightened security alerts increased market expectations of a possible major closure.
May 10 2026
Airlines continue cancellations and rerouting amid ongoing regional tensions
May 31 jumps to 38%8%
Ongoing airline disruptions and cautious official statements kept the market's probability moderate, reflecting uncertainty about a potential major closure.
May 8 2026
Iran resumes limited airspace restrictions after missile strikes on UAE
May 31 drops to 27%7%
Following missile strikes, Iran reinstated some airspace restrictions, but these were limited and did not constitute a major closure, causing mixed market reactions.
May 8 2026
No official Iranian government or civil aviation announcements of a major airspace closure;
May 8 dips to 2%1%
commercial flights continued operating normally or with limited restrictions not meeting the "major closure" criteria; market
May 7 2026
Reuters notes that several airlines (Finnair, British Airways, Pegasus, etc.) are cancelling or rerouting flights to avoid Iranian airspace, but there is no official Iranian
May 7 drops to 0%7%
Reuters notes that several airlines (Finnair, British Airways, Pegasus, etc.) are cancelling or rerouting flights to avoid Iranian airspace, but there is no official Iranian government order closing the airspace, leading traders to push the Yes
May 7 2026
Minor temporary uptick to 7% possibly due to short-term rumors or geopolitical concerns, but no verifiable news of a major closure emerged;
May 8 rises to 7%4%
market quickly corrected downward
May 7 2026
Partial airspace closures near Strait of Hormuz reported, no broad closure
May 31 jumps to 40%13%
Reports of partial closures for military drills near the Strait of Hormuz increased concerns about escalation, pushing
May 6 2026
Market reassesses after Iranian authorities clarify limited airspace restrictions
May 31 drops to 27%11%
Clarifications from Iranian aviation authorities indicated that closures were targeted and temporary, not a full major closure, leading to a market correction downward.
May 5 2026
Benzinga reports that after renewed Strait‑of‑Hormuz attacks, Polymarket odds that Iran will enact a “major closure” jump to 52 % from 42 % the day before, prompting traders to
May 7 jumps to 7%6%
Benzinga reports that after renewed Strait‑of‑Hormuz attacks, Polymarket odds that Iran will enact a “major closure” jump to 52 % from 42 % the day before, prompting traders to bid up the Yes
May 5 2026
Airlines including Air India and IndiGo reroute flights due to Iran airspace closure
May 31 plunges to 38%24%
Major Indian carriers announced rerouting and cancellations following Iran's airspace closure announcements, confirming operational disruptions but with some uncertainty about the closure's scope, causing
May 4 2026
Iran issues a temporary restriction on civilian flights within the Tehran FIR, allowing only pre‑authorized international traffic;
May 15 dips to 4%4%
the notice is brief and does not affect the majority of commercial airports
May 4 2026
Market briefly peaked at 27%–39% on speculation or rumors possibly linked to regional tensions or military drills, but no official Iranian airspace closure announcements
May 8 plunges to 10%17%
Market briefly peaked at 27%–39% on speculation or rumors possibly linked to regional tensions or military drills, but no official Iranian airspace closure announcements materialized; absence of qualifying closure news caused
May 4 2026
Iran announced the reopening of its western airspace region (covering Shiraz and Isfahan) after a 12‑hour suspension, but kept the eastern sector closed, keeping two major
May 31 surges to 59%18%
Iran announced the reopening of its western airspace region (covering Shiraz and Isfahan) after a 12‑hour suspension, but kept the eastern sector closed, keeping two major airports (IKA, MHD) grounded
May 4 2026
Following the partial reopening, the Iranian civil aviation ministry clarified that the suspension of arrivals/departures at IKA and THR would continue until further notice,
May 31 dips to 55%4%
Following the partial reopening, the Iranian civil aviation ministry clarified that the suspension of arrivals/departures at IKA and THR would continue until further notice, pushing the market back up
May 4 2026
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on UAE, prompting UAE airspace restrictions
May 31 surges to 62%22%
Iran's missile and drone attacks on the UAE led to renewed UAE airspace restrictions and increased regional tensions, significantly raising the probability of Iran imposing a major airspace closure.
May 2 2026
Reports emerge of increased military activity near Iranian airspace
May 31 drops to 31%11%
News of military drills and missile tests near Iranian airspace led to partial airspace restrictions but no major closure, causing a market dip as the risk of a full closure appeared lower.
Iran's Civil Aviation Authority announced temporary restrictions on airspace access affecting commercial flights, signaling heightened security concerns and raising market expectations of a possible broader closure.
May 1 2026
No credible reports or official notices from Iranian aviation authorities indicated any planned or ongoing major closure of Iranian airspace by May 8, leading to initial moderate
May 8 dips to 21%3%
No credible reports or official notices from Iranian aviation authorities indicated any planned or ongoing major closure of Iranian airspace by May 8, leading to initial moderate market optimism (around 24%) that a closure might occur
Feb 28 2026
U.S. and Israeli strikes prompt Iran (and Iraq) to close civilian airspace, but the closure is framed as an immediate, conflict‑driven response rather than a sustained, broad
May 15 drops to 14%6%
U.S. and Israeli strikes prompt Iran (and Iraq) to close civilian airspace, but the closure is framed as an immediate, conflict‑driven response rather than a sustained, broad suspension
Feb 28 2026
Middle East airspace shuts after US‑Israel strike on Iran;
May 15 drops to 27%5%
Iran closes its airspace to civilian traffic, prompting fears of a broad closure that pushed the market up
Feb 28 2026
Air India, IndiGo and SpiceJet issue advisories about flight disruptions caused by Iran’s short‑term airspace closure, underscoring that the impact was limited to specific routes
May 15 dips to 11%3%
Air India, IndiGo and SpiceJet issue advisories about flight disruptions caused by Iran’s short‑term airspace closure, underscoring that the impact was limited to specific routes and not a nationwide suspension
"Iran closes its airspace by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30" at 47%, followed by "May 31" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Iran closes its airspace by...?" has generated $13.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on May 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Iran closes its airspace by...?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Iran closes its airspace by...?" is "June 30" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "May 31" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Iran closes its airspace by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Iran closes its airspace by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $13.1 million traded on “Iran closes its airspace by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Iran closes its airspace by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 47¢ for "June 30" in the "Iran closes its airspace by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 47% chance that "June 30" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 47¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 53¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Iran closes its airspace by...?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around May 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "Iran closes its airspace by...?" market has an active community of 680 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Iran closes its airspace by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
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